Principal Investigator:
Dr. Anthony R. Lupo
Visiting Scientist:
Dr. Atanas Dommo (Also with Prof. Noel Aloysius)
Graduate Students:
Jordan Rabinowitz - PhD
Joe Renken - KOPN/LRF
Research Assistants:

The primary mission of this research program is to gain a better understanding of the synoptic and planetary-scale atmospheric processes contribute to the formation and maintenance of such atmospheric phenomenon known as blocking anticyclones and how interannual variations and/or global climate change may impact on their characteristics and occurrence. Blocking anticyclones are planetary-scale phenomenon, which have an impact, not only on the regions they occur in, but also within regions upstream and downstream of the main event. In examining the issues of interannual variability of blocking and changes in their climatological characteristics, and variability of the primary variables of the atmosphere’s global circulation, local climate change issues can also be addressed. For example, this program endeavors to examine the climatic and dynamic characteristics of heavy snowfalls, general precipitation, and tornadoes in the Midwest. We have shown that there is significant interannual variability in these local phenomenon which can be related to El Nino and longer-term climatic variability. This group has also examined the changes in the climatic character of Atlantic Basin hurricane intensities. Additionally, we will address the length of the growing season in Missouri. These issues will be explored in cooperation with the Missouri Climate Center and the National Weather Service Forecast Offices in Pleasant Hill, MO, and Springfield, MO. Our international partners in study include scientists at the Russian Academy of Science, as well as Belgorod State University in Belgorod Russia. In examining and identifying the interannual variability and/or long term trends (climate change) for these events, the interests of the local agricultural and public sectors will be served.


Long Range Forecasting - Seasonal and Subseasonal


Sub-Seasonal Forecasting - Flow Regimes


Forecasting Flow Regime Transition using Integrated Enstrophy (IE)

Seasonal Products


Our Long Range Forecast for Summer 2026

Our Long Range Forecast for Winter 2026-2027

Our Atlantic Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2019 and Verification!

Our Atlantic Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2020 and Verification!

Our Atlantic Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2021 and Verification!

Our Atlantic Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2022 and Verification!

Our Atlantic Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2023 and Verification!

Our Atlantic Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2024 and Verification!

Our Atlantic Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2025 and Verification!

Our Atlantic Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2026

Take a look at what others predicted in 2025

Coming Soon - Subseasonal Forecasts - BSR/EAR/SOI/MJO



Forecast Rodeo


The National Drought Information System (NIDIS) – (drought.gov) held a Long Range (Weather) Forecasting Rodeo (sponsored by the United States Bureau of Reclamation) for one year to make Temperature and Precipitation forecasts for the 3-4 Week and 5-6 week timeframe. The forecasts were made for the Western half of the USA. The Rodeo lasted from May 2017 – to May 2018 and the prizes were $100,000.00 for 1st place. The Rodeo drew over 200 research groups from around the world into the competition including a group within the Global Climate Change Group in the School of Natural Resources and collaborators. Our group used techniques developed in our research.


Check and see how we did. We are team LupoA13

Links to our research partners and meteorology societies.


Products (Archive or log of Northern and Southern Hemisphere Blocking)


Enclosed is an archive of Northern and Southern Hemisphere blocking events including complete information regarding when and where they occurred, and their intensity as defined by Weidenmann et al. (2002). In this day and age, this blocking log could be called the Climate Change Group "Blocking Log" or "Blog" for short. Here is a review paper on blocking (Lupo 2021) and a conference paper (Lupo-Jensen-Mokhov-Timazhev) that discusses global blocking up to mid-2018


*****New for 2021. The Latitude of the block onset has been added as a new column 9. this has been added for 1975 to 2020 and will be included going forward and supplemented going backward.





  • NOTE: Our blocking record is up-to-date to June 2. With the end of the NCEP reanalyses - we've had to find another source. June-August 2026 still needs to be analaysed. We also have Sept 2026 analysed to 00 01 October 2026

    Annals of the New York Academy of Science - Blocking Review

    Blocking as of 2018 - 20 years after Wiedenmann et al. 2002

    Northern Hemisphere Events 1968 - 2025 are now here!

    Northern Hemisphere Events 1968 - 2025 (up to 01 October 2026) in PDF format
    Northern Hemisphere Events 1968 (July 1) - 2025 (up to 01 October 2026) in an Excel Spreadsheet


    Southern Hemisphere Events 1970 - 2025 are now here!

    Southern Hemisphere Events 1969 - 2025 (up to 01 October 2026) in PDF format
    Southern Hemisphere Events 1969 - 2025 (up to 01 October 2026) in an Excel Spreadsheet


    Selected Journal / Conference Papers


    Blocking / Atmospheric Dynamics

    Weaver al. 2024 - using phase space diagrams to examine seasonal predictabiloity in the Tropical Atlantic

    Balkissoon et al. 2024 - Collaboration with Math - looking at the relation between water waves and wind speed.

    Ideki and Lupo 2024 - CMIP6 simulations of SSTs in the Gulf of Guinea and their implications.

    Chendev et al 2023 - Aforestation and Deforestaton Dynamics in the Belgorod Region of Russia. We play a small role!

    Weaver et al 2023 - Large-scale analysis of the Drought of 2022: The trigger.

    Balkissoon et al 2023 - Classification of Wind tower data using AI

    Ethridge et al. 2023 - Legenas Okland blocking index in two dimensions

    Yavuz et al. 2022 - TAAC - The role of short-waves in sea effect snow.

    Farr et al. 2022 - Collaboration with Prof Semenova studying the hybrid Black Sea cyclone Falchion

    Yavuz et al. 2022 - mesoscale analysis of sea effect snow.

    Blocking - Cold spells - Enstrophy - Spring Transitions and Decay.

    The Atmospheric Dynamics of Drought (2021) - Kononova, Semenova, Lebedeva, and myself.

    Balkissoon et al. (2021) Chaos and Forecasting wind speeds using Emprical Dynamic Models

    Klaus et al. (2020) Integrated Enstrophy and predictability in an operational Ensemble

    Balkissoon, Fox, and Lupo 2020 - Wind Energy, Wind Time Series, and Fractals

    Balkissoon et al. 2020: Integrated Enstrophy, Florence, and SDOIC

    Kononova and Lupo 2020 - NH flow regime dynamics and Information Entropy

    Kononova and Lupo 2020 - IOP Paper - NH flow regime dynamics Societal Impact

    Reynolds et al. - Block - Cyclone dynamics

    JRab and Atmospheric Rivers

    Lupo, Jensen, Mokhov, Wang 2018, Editorial note for special issue: Large-scale Dynamics, Anomalous Flows, and Teleconnections 2018

    Lebedeva et al 2019 - NH Circulation regimes.

    Kutta et al 2018 - Symmetry in ENSO energy fluxes

    Blocking and Climate Change Woollings et al. 2018

    Using Integrated Regional Enstrophy in a near term Climate Simulation - Jensen et al. 2018

    Integrated Regional Enstrophy, Block Intensity, Kolmogorov Entropy - Jensen et al. 2017

    Atmospheric Blocking, Ozone, and Water Vapor - Sitnov et al. 2017

    Lupo, Li, Feng, Fox, Simpson, Rabinowitz: SDOIC versus RDOIC

    Jensen 2015: Blocking Dynamics, a good paper

    Crandall et al. 2016: A Diabatic Q-Vector - folding in diabatic heating into the Q-Vector

    The relation of Soil type to climate change in Southeast Europe and Southern Russia (in Russian)

    The relation of Soil type to climate change in Southeast Europe and Southern Russia

    Global and Planetary Change: Back to the Future....of blocking

    Lupo, Colucci, Mokhov, Wang 2015, Editorial note for special issue: Large-scale Dynamics, Anomalous Flows, and Teleconnections

    Lupo, Colucci, Mokhov, Wang 2014, Editorial note for special issue: Large-scale Dynamics, Anomalous Flows, and Teleconnectoins

    Jensen and Lupo 2014, Enstrophy Deformation, Dynamics of Oceans and Atmospheres.

    Sitnov, Mokhov and Lupo 2013, The water vapor plume in the Russian Block of 2010

    Wang, Lupo, Qin, 2013, Tellus A - ENSO - mid-latitude feedbacks

    The Leadoff Chapter on Models for the Latest NIPPC report (NIPCC2)

    T Lupo, I Mokhov, Y Chendev, M. Lebedeva, M. Akperov, and J. Hubbart (2014) Advances in Meteorology Special Issue - Summer Season Drought in Russia

    Jensen and Lupo (2013) Advances in Meteorology Special Issue - Ensemble model diagnostic

    Jensen and Lupo (2013) QJRMS - something new on blocking

    Market, Rochette, Lupo (2013) Atms Sci Let - Montgomery stream Function- glad to be teamed up with my colleagues!

    Doklady: Mokhov et al. Blocking Tendencies for the NH back to 1871 and in the Future! (English version)

    Doklady: Mokhov et al. Blocking Tendencies for the NH back to 1871 and in the Future! (Russian version)

    Advances in Meteorology: Russian Drought of 2010 - Lupo et al 2012

    JGR Atmospheres Y. Wang et al. 2011 - Tibet Plateau

    Sensitive Dependence Case Study: Schnetz et al. (2010)

    Advances in Meteorology: Hussain and Lupo 2010

    Monthly Weather Review: Wang and Lupo 2009

    Monthly Weather Review: Tilly et al. 2008

    Journal of Atmospheric Science: Luo et al. Part I 2007

    Journal of Atmospheric Science: Luo et al. 2007 Part II

    Izvestia paper: Lupo et al. 2007 (in Russian)

    Izvestia paper: Lupo et al. 2007 (in English)

    Journal of Atmospheric Science: Burkhardt and Lupo 2005

    Weather and Forecasting: Lupo and Market 2003

    Monthly Weather Review: Lupo 2002

    Monthly Weather Review: Lupo et al. 2001

    Mesoscale dynamics: National Weather Digest: Lupo et al. 2000

    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: Lupo and Bosart 1999

    Monthly Weather Review: Lupo and Smith 1998

    Monthly Weather Review: Lupo 1997

    Tellus: Lupo and Smith 1995

    King et al. 1995

    Monthly Weather Review: Lupo et al. 1992

    Tellus: Uhl et al. 1992

    Climate / Climate Variability

    Lupo and Efe 2026 Simultaneous blocking/A>

    Yatta et al. Irrigation and Drainage - Yeild of Sweet Corn using subsurface irrigation/A>

    Dommo et al. Projections for extreme temperature and precipitation in a warmer world.

    Interannual Variability in MO Mesonet rainfall data using Wavelets

    Dommo et al. 2025-CMIP6 Projections of Temperature and Precipitation Change under Global Temperature Rises of 1.5 C or 2 C

    Kara et al. 2025 - The Issue of Urban Heat Index - A Study of the Influence of Samsun Turkiye

    Weaver et al. 2025 - Linking Drought Monitor reports to large-scale teleconnections and MO Drought

    Balkissoon et al. 2024 - Using AI/ML technioques to assess energy poverty in MO.

    Dommo et al. 2024 - Climate Variability in the rainfall for the Mississippi Valley

    Ideki and Lupo 2024 - Climate Variability in the SSTs and rainfall in the Gulf of Guinea

    Kara etal 2024 - Climate Variability in the Precipitation across Istanbul.

    Rezaei etal 2023 - Heat days in the Middle East and North Africa between 1871 - 2012.

    Soon et al. 2023 - Detection and Attribution of NH Land surface Warming

    Clay et al 2023 - Severe Weather and Soil Moisture climatology - MO

    Khosravichenar et al 2023 - Soil Salinization with respect to climate change

    Yavuz et al. - International Journal of Global Warming - Historic Winters in Turkiye

    Aalijahan et al. - Atmosphere - Climate Change in the Mamara Region of Turkiye

    Yavuz et al. - TAAC - long term look at Sea Effect Snow occurrence

    Yavuz et al. - a look at the occurrence of thundersnow in Northwest Turkey- Nat Haz

    ITU colleagues and I - collaborating on an interesting Tourism Climate Index study

    Efe and Lupo - Looking at blocking trends employing the Sen trend analysis technique

    Toulabi et al. - A climatological study of blocking in more detail

    Renken et al. - SOI Change Index relationship to Severe Weather

    Nejad et al. Connection of Blocking to wet and drought periods in Iran.

    Aalijahan et al. - 142 years of cold spells in Iran (TAAC)

    Lupo et al. 2021 - shorter article on Drought

    Rojas et al. ENSO and PDO varability in the Andes

    Annals of the New York Academy of Science - Blocking Review

    Blocking and Extremes in Turkey

    The decade of the 2010s - tropical cyclone activity

    Kononova and Lupo 2020: Climate, Flow Regimes, and Natural Disasters in Russia

    Phung et al. 2020: Climate and Land Use in an Agriculture Watershed

    Lebedeva et al. 2020 Sugarbeet production variability in Belgorod - collaboration with my colleagues at BSNRU

    Efe et al. 2019 Blocking impacts of Precipitation in Turkey

    Efe et al. 2019 Blocking impacts on Temperature in Turkey

    Large-Scale dynamics and climate variability, Editorial note.

    Blocking as of 2018 - 20 years after Wiedenmann et al. 2002

    Wood et al 2019 - The great Central MO Eclipse experiment

    Rabinowitz et al 2018 - Blocking a heavy rain in the Misssouri Region

    Lebedeva et al 2017 - Bioclimatic Potential - followup Henson et al. 2016

    Precipitation and CoCoRaHs data in MO - Simpson et al. 2017

    Bering Sea Rule / East Asian Rule - Renken et al. 2017

    Symmetry and Asymmetry in ENSO

    Extreme (3-sigma) Monthly Temps and Precip

    The APO Index: Wang and Lupo

    Lightning Flash Density with Josh and Docs group

    Paper with Josh Kastman: RRDOZ

    Henson et al. ENSO/PDO impacts on Crop Production

    Matveev et al. 2016: Tree Ring analysis of Climate - Long Term - Voronezh Region

    Chendev et al. 2016: Afforestation - Belgorod - Iowa

    Newberry et al. 2016: Spring to Summer transitions

    Lebedeva et al. 2015: Hemispheric Scale Weather regimes and the impact on weather in SW Russia.

    The Bering Sea and Typhoon Rule LRF part II! Case Studies We're page 51-55

    The Bering Sea and Typhoon Rule LRF Techniques. We're page 46-50

    Petin et al. 2014 - Atmospheric Circulation Changes in the Belgorod region.

    Hubbart et al. 2014 - More on the Heat Island studies.

    Chendev et al. 2013 Applied Geography

    Lupo et al. 2012 - Midwest Dewpoint trends and variability- NWD

    Chendev Petin and Lupo 2012, Geography, Environment, Sustainability - Soils as an Indicator......

    Journal of Freshwater Ecology 2012, Fish Feeding and the Weather, Lupo et al.

    Corn crop and drought Variability in the last century- M. Stambaugh, R. Guyette, et al.

    Hey wait a minute....I wrote a book.....chapter on hurricane variability

    Tropical storms influencing Missouri, 2010 - Transactions of the Missouri Academy

    Birk et al. 2010 - Midwest climate

    Market et al. 2009

    Letter to Journal of the AMA - 2008

    Latham et al and hurricanes 2008

    Moon et al and CoCoRaHs 2009

    Journal of Missouri Medicine Invited paper - Lupo response 2008

    Journal of Missouri Medicine Invited paper - Lupo 2008

    Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres - Zuki and Lupo 2008

    National Weather Digest: Kelsey et al. 2007 Part II application

    Atmosfera: Kelsey et al. 2007 Part I

    Journal of Climate: Barriopedro et al. 2006

    Climate Change in Midwest Oaks

    Snows: National Weather Digest: Lupo et al. 2005

    Snows: Physical Geography: Berger et al. 2002

    Tornadoes: Transactions MO Academy of Science: Akyuz et al. 2004

    Heat Island: Atmos. Sci. Let.: Buckley et al. 2008

    Heat Island: Transactions: Grathwohl et al. 2009

    Heat Island: Transactions MO Academy of Science: Lupo et al. 2004

    Heat Island: National Weather Digest Lupo et al. 2003

    TV-Precipitation-Broadcast: National Weather Digest: Hagen et al. 2008

    TV-Temperatures-Broadcast: National Weather Digest: Lupo et al. 2003

    Article on Climate Modeling written for ICECAP.US - International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project

    Article on Feedbacks written for ICECAP.US - International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project

    Journal of Climate: Wiedenmann et al. 2002

    WMO Report: Mokhov et al. 2002

    Transactions, MO Academy of Sciences Ratley et al. 2002

    Journal of Climate: Bals-Elsholtz et al. 2001

    National Weather Digest: Lupo and Johnston, 2000 - take a look at the results we got!

    Climate Dynamics: Lupo Oglesby Mokhov 1997

    Tellus: Lupo and Smith 1995

    Other PR Publications

    The Role of the Oceans in Climate: Chapter 6

    The 2020 Stats on Global Blocking: An assessment

    Editorial - 10th Anniversary of Atmosphere: Stats and articles

    Mokhov, Lupo, Prokofyeva Blocking Tendencies - WMO Technical Report

    Publication history of NWD

    NIPCC II 2013 Author Ch 1

    NIPCC 2011 Contributor Ch 1 Reviewer

    NIPCC 2009 Contributor Ch 6 Reviewer

    BAMS Meeting Summary Advancing Renewables in the Midwest

    BAMS Meeting Summary WAFICUS2

    BAMS Meeting Summary WAFICUS1

    Melick et al 2008 JGR Thundersnow and Stability

    Market et al 2006 JGR Thundersnow

    IPPC AR2 WG1 Ch 6 Cont. auth.

    New Windchill Report 2003

    The American Civil War 150 / Powerpoints

    I have always had a keen interest in the American Civil War, and this year commemorates the 150th Anniversary of the start of this conflict. The early battles in Missouri are often overlooked as historians and Civil War buffs tend to focus on the imporance of Civil War Battles in the East. However, Missouri was an important battle ground and whether or not Missouri would ulimately secede may have been decided on the battlefield. The weather played a role in the outcome of some early battles. In cooperation with students James Michael Madden and John Moon III, we reconstruct the possible role played by weather in each of these skirmishes. Thanks go out to Dr. D.J. Burnette at the University of Arkansas whose temperature records from the era were helpful in reconstructing the weather. The Battle of Wilson's Creek was presented at the Missouri Academy of Science in 2009. The Battle of Carthage was presented a year later, and Legington in the same year.

    The Battle of Carthage, MO, July 5th 1861

    The Battle of Wilson's Creek, MO, August 9th - 10th 1861

    The Battle of Lexington, MO, September 13th - 20th 1861



    Presentations / Powerpoints

    ATMOS22 presentation in MP4

    Drought in the Midwest: Given for the George Marshal Institute at the National Press Club 27 June 2006.

    The Science of Drought and Flood Prediction: Drought 2012

    My Take on Global Warming

    Open Letter to the US House and Senate

    My Presentation at COMET / COMAP June 2010 on predictability

    My Presentation on Blocking at the Russian Academy of Science and the State University of NY at Oswego.

    My Presentation to the 3rd International Conference on Climate Change

    My Presentation to the 7th International Conference on Climate Change

    Jensen and Lupo Presentation to the Davos Atmosphere and Cryosphere Assembly 2013

    Hurricane Safety

    Tropical Meteorology Lectures 7 March 2025

    Tropical Meteorology Lectures 14 March 2025

    Tropical Meteorology Lectures 21 March 2025

    Tropical Meteorology Lectures 28 March 2025

    Tropical Meteorology Lectures 11 April 2025

    Tropical Meteorology Lectures 18 April 2025

    Tropical Meteorology Lectures 18 April 2025

    Tropical Meteorology Lectures 25 April 2025

    Tropical Meteorology Lectures 2 May 2025

    Tropical Meteorology Lectures 9 May 2025

    Tropical Meteorology Lectures 16 May 2025

    Tropical Meteorology Lectures 23 May 2025

    Dave and Tony Clean and Jerk DB

    Allison and Tony Hip Lift



    Curriculum Vitae

    My Curriculum Vitae as of 27 July 2021


    Copyright © 2012 Department of Soil, Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Missouri - Columbia