Principal Investigator:
Dr. Anthony R. Lupo
Visiting Scientist:
Dr. Oye Ideki
Graduate Students:
Jordan Rabinowitz - PhD Sarah Weaver - PhD Jason Senter - PhD
Lukas McGuire - M.S.
Joe Renken - KOPN/LRF Alex Nixon
Research Assistants:

The primary mission of this research program is to gain a better understanding of the synoptic and planetary-scale atmospheric processes contribute to the formation and maintenance of such atmospheric phenomenon known as blocking anticyclones and how interannual variations and/or global climate change may impact on their characteristics and occurrence. Blocking anticyclones are planetary-scale phenomenon, which have an impact, not only on the regions they occur in, but also within regions upstream and downstream of the main event. In examining the issues of interannual variability of blocking and changes in their climatological characteristics, and variability of the primary variables of the atmosphere’s global circulation, local climate change issues can also be addressed. For example, this program endeavors to examine the climatic and dynamic characteristics of heavy snowfalls, general precipitation, and tornadoes in the Midwest. We have shown that there is significant interannual variability in these local phenomenon which can be related to El Nino and longer-term climatic variability. This group has also examined the changes in the climatic character of Atlantic Basin hurricane intensities. Additionally, we will address the length of the growing season in Missouri. These issues will be explored in cooperation with the Missouri Climate Center and the National Weather Service Forecast Offices in Pleasant Hill, MO, and Springfield, MO. Our international partners in study include scientists at the Russian Academy of Science, as well as Belgorod State University in Belgorod Russia. In examining and identifying the interannual variability and/or long term trends (climate change) for these events, the interests of the local agricultural and public sectors will be served.


Long Range Forecasting - Seasonal and Subseasonal


Sub-Seasonal Forecasting - Flow Regimes


Forecasting Flow Regime Transition using Integrated Enstrophy (IE)

Seasonal Products


Our Long Range Forecast for Summer 2024

Our Long Range Forecast for Winter 2023-2024

Our Atlantic Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2019 and Verification!

Our Atlantic Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2020 and Verification!

Our Atlantic Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2021 and Verification!

Our Atlantic Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2022 and Verification!

Our Atlantic Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2023 and Verification!

Take a look at what others predicted in 2023

Coming Soon - Subseasonal Forecasts - BSR/EAR/SOI/MJO



Forecast Rodeo


The National Drought Information System (NIDIS) – (drought.gov) held a Long Range (Weather) Forecasting Rodeo (sponsored by the United States Bureau of Reclamation) for one year to make Temperature and Precipitation forecasts for the 3-4 Week and 5-6 week timeframe. The forecasts were made for the Western half of the USA. The Rodeo lasted from May 2017 – to May 2018 and the prizes were $100,000.00 for 1st place. The Rodeo drew over 200 research groups from around the world into the competition including a group within the Global Climate Change Group in the School of Natural Resources and collaborators. Our group used techniques developed in our research.


Check and see how we did. We are team LupoA13

Links to our research partners and meteorology societies.


Products (Archive or log of Northern and Southern Hemisphere Blocking)


Enclosed is an archive of Northern and Southern Hemisphere blocking events including complete information regarding when and where they occurred, and their intensity as defined by Weidenmann et al. (2002). In this day and age, this blocking log could be called the Climate Change Group "Blocking Log" or "Blog" for short. Here is a review paper on blocking (Lupo 2021) and a conference paper (Lupo-Jensen-Mokhov-Timazhev) that discusses global blocking up to mid-2018


*****New for 2021. The Latitude of the block onset has been added as a new column 9. this has been added for 1975 to 2020 and will be included going forward and supplemented going backward.





Annals of the New York Academy of Science - Blocking Review

Blocking as of 2018 - 20 years after Wiedenmann et al. 2002

Northern Hemisphere Events 1968 - 2023 are now here!

Northern Hemisphere Events 1968 - 2024 (up to 19 March 2024) in PDF format
Northern Hemisphere Events 1968 (July 1) - 2024 (up to 19 March 2024) in an Excel Spreadsheet


Southern Hemisphere Events 1970 - 2024 are now here!

Southern Hemisphere Events 1969 - 2024 (up to 19 March 2024) in PDF format
Southern Hemisphere Events 1969 - 2024 (up to 19 March 2024) in an Excel Spreadsheet


Selected Journal / Conference Papers


Blocking / Atmospheric Dynamics

Ideki and Lupo 2024 - CMIP6 simulations of SSTs in the Gulf of Guinea and their implications.

Chendev et al 2023 - Aforestation and Deforestaton Dynamics in the Belgorod Region of Russia. We play a small role!

Weaver et al 2023 - Large-scale analysis of the Drought of 2022: The trigger.

Balkissoon et al 2023 - Classification of Wind tower data using AI

Ethridge et al. 2023 - Legenas Okland blocking index in two dimensions

Yavuz et al. 2022 - TAAC - The role of short-waves in sea effect snow.

Farr et al. 2022 - Collaboration with Prof Semenova studying the hybrid Black Sea cyclone Falchion

Yavuz et al. 2022 - mesoscale analysis of sea effect snow.

Blocking - Cold spells - Enstrophy - Spring Transitions and Decay.

The Atmospheric Dynamics of Drought (2021) - Kononova, Semenova, Lebedeva, and myself.

Balkissoon et al. (2021) Chaos and Forecasting wind speeds using Emprical Dynamic Models

Klaus et al. (2020) Integrated Enstrophy and predictability in an operational Ensemble

Balkissoon, Fox, and Lupo 2020 - Wind Energy, Wind Time Series, and Fractals

Balkissoon et al. 2020: Integrated Enstrophy, Florence, and SDOIC

Kononova and Lupo 2020 - NH flow regime dynamics and Information Entropy

Kononova and Lupo 2020 - IOP Paper - NH flow regime dynamics Societal Impact

Reynolds et al. - Block - Cyclone dynamics

JRab and Atmospheric Rivers

Lupo, Jensen, Mokhov, Wang 2018, Editorial note for special issue: Large-scale Dynamics, Anomalous Flows, and Teleconnections 2018

Lebedeva et al 2019 - NH Circulation regimes.

Kutta et al 2018 - Symmetry in ENSO energy fluxes

Blocking and Climate Change Woollings et al. 2018

Using Integrated Regional Enstrophy in a near term Climate Simulation - Jensen et al. 2018

Integrated Regional Enstrophy, Block Intensity, Kolmogorov Entropy - Jensen et al. 2017

Atmospheric Blocking, Ozone, and Water Vapor - Sitnov et al. 2017

Lupo, Li, Feng, Fox, Simpson, Rabinowitz: SDOIC versus RDOIC

Jensen 2015: Blocking Dynamics, a good paper

Crandall et al. 2016: A Diabatic Q-Vector - folding in diabatic heating into the Q-Vector

The relation of Soil type to climate change in Southeast Europe and Southern Russia (in Russian)

The relation of Soil type to climate change in Southeast Europe and Southern Russia

Global and Planetary Change: Back to the Future....of blocking

Lupo, Colucci, Mokhov, Wang 2015, Editorial note for special issue: Large-scale Dynamics, Anomalous Flows, and Teleconnections

Lupo, Colucci, Mokhov, Wang 2014, Editorial note for special issue: Large-scale Dynamics, Anomalous Flows, and Teleconnectoins

Jensen and Lupo 2014, Enstrophy Deformation, Dynamics of Oceans and Atmospheres.

Sitnov, Mokhov and Lupo 2013, The water vapor plume in the Russian Block of 2010

Wang, Lupo, Qin, 2013, Tellus A - ENSO - mid-latitude feedbacks

The Leadoff Chapter on Models for the Latest NIPPC report (NIPCC2)

T Lupo, I Mokhov, Y Chendev, M. Lebedeva, M. Akperov, and J. Hubbart (2014) Advances in Meteorology Special Issue - Summer Season Drought in Russia

Jensen and Lupo (2013) Advances in Meteorology Special Issue - Ensemble model diagnostic

Jensen and Lupo (2013) QJRMS - something new on blocking

Market, Rochette, Lupo (2013) Atms Sci Let - Montgomery stream Function- glad to be teamed up with my colleagues!

Doklady: Mokhov et al. Blocking Tendencies for the NH back to 1871 and in the Future! (English version)

Doklady: Mokhov et al. Blocking Tendencies for the NH back to 1871 and in the Future! (Russian version)

Advances in Meteorology: Russian Drought of 2010 - Lupo et al 2012

JGR Atmospheres Y. Wang et al. 2011 - Tibet Plateau

Sensitive Dependence Case Study: Schnetz et al. (2010)

Advances in Meteorology: Hussain and Lupo 2010

Monthly Weather Review: Wang and Lupo 2009

Monthly Weather Review: Tilly et al. 2008

Journal of Atmospheric Science: Luo et al. Part I 2007

Journal of Atmospheric Science: Luo et al. 2007 Part II

Izvestia paper: Lupo et al. 2007 (in Russian)

Izvestia paper: Lupo et al. 2007 (in English)

Journal of Atmospheric Science: Burkhardt and Lupo 2005

Weather and Forecasting: Lupo and Market 2003

Monthly Weather Review: Lupo 2002

Monthly Weather Review: Lupo et al. 2001

Mesoscale dynamics: National Weather Digest: Lupo et al. 2000

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: Lupo and Bosart 1999

Monthly Weather Review: Lupo and Smith 1998

Monthly Weather Review: Lupo 1997

Tellus: Lupo and Smith 1995

King et al. 1995

Monthly Weather Review: Lupo et al. 1992

Tellus: Uhl et al. 1992

Climate / Climate Variability

Rezaei etal 2023 - Heat days in the Middle East and North Africa between 1871 - 2012.

Soon et al. 2023 - Detection and Attribution of NH Land surface Warming

Clay et al 2023 - Severe Weather and Soil Moisture climatology - MO

Khosravichenar et al 2023 - Soil Salinization with respect to climate change

Yavuz et al. - International Journal of Global Warming - Historic Winters in Turkiye

Aalijahan et al. - Atmosphere - Climate Change in the Mamara Region of Turkiye

Yavuz et al. - TAAC - long term look at Sea Effect Snow occurrence

Yavuz et al. - a look at the occurrence of thundersnow in Northwest Turkey- Nat Haz

ITU colleagues and I - collaborating on an interesting Tourism Climate Index study

Efe and Lupo - Looking at blocking trends employing the Sen trend analysis technique

Toulabi et al. - A climatological study of blocking in more detail

Renken et al. - SOI Change Index relationship to Severe Weather

Nejad et al. Connection of Blocking to wet and drought periods in Iran.

Aalijahan et al. - 142 years of cold spells in Iran (TAAC)

Lupo et al. 2021 - shorter article on Drought

Rojas et al. ENSO and PDO varability in the Andes

Annals of the New York Academy of Science - Blocking Review

Blocking and Extremes in Turkey

The decade of the 2010s - tropical cyclone activity

Kononova and Lupo 2020: Climate, Flow Regimes, and Natural Disasters in Russia

Phung et al. 2020: Climate and Land Use in an Agriculture Watershed

Lebedeva et al. 2020 Sugarbeet production variability in Belgorod - collaboration with my colleagues at BSNRU

Efe et al. 2019 Blocking impacts of Precipitation in Turkey

Efe et al. 2019 Blocking impacts on Temperature in Turkey

Large-Scale dynamics and climate variability, Editorial note.

Blocking as of 2018 - 20 years after Wiedenmann et al. 2002

Wood et al 2019 - The great Central MO Eclipse experiment

Rabinowitz et al 2018 - Blocking a heavy rain in the Misssouri Region

Lebedeva et al 2017 - Bioclimatic Potential - followup Henson et al. 2016

Precipitation and CoCoRaHs data in MO - Simpson et al. 2017

Bering Sea Rule / East Asian Rule - Renken et al. 2017

Symmetry and Asymmetry in ENSO

Extreme (3-sigma) Monthly Temps and Precip

The APO Index: Wang and Lupo

Lightning Flash Density with Josh and Docs group

Paper with Josh Kastman: RRDOZ

Henson et al. ENSO/PDO impacts on Crop Production

Matveev et al. 2016: Tree Ring analysis of Climate - Long Term - Voronezh Region

Chendev et al. 2016: Afforestation - Belgorod - Iowa

Newberry et al. 2016: Spring to Summer transitions

Lebedeva et al. 2015: Hemispheric Scale Weather regimes and the impact on weather in SW Russia.

The Bering Sea and Typhoon Rule LRF part II! Case Studies We're page 51-55

The Bering Sea and Typhoon Rule LRF Techniques. We're page 46-50

Petin et al. 2014 - Atmospheric Circulation Changes in the Belgorod region.

Hubbart et al. 2014 - More on the Heat Island studies.

Chendev et al. 2013 Applied Geography

Lupo et al. 2012 - Midwest Dewpoint trends and variability- NWD

Chendev Petin and Lupo 2012, Geography, Environment, Sustainability - Soils as an Indicator......

Journal of Freshwater Ecology 2012, Fish Feeding and the Weather, Lupo et al.

Corn crop and drought Variability in the last century- M. Stambaugh, R. Guyette, et al.

Hey wait a minute....I wrote a book.....chapter on hurricane variability

Tropical storms influencing Missouri, 2010 - Transactions of the Missouri Academy

Birk et al. 2010 - Midwest climate

Market et al. 2009

Letter to Journal of the AMA - 2008

Latham et al and hurricanes 2008

Moon et al and CoCoRaHs 2009

Journal of Missouri Medicine Invited paper - Lupo response 2008

Journal of Missouri Medicine Invited paper - Lupo 2008

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres - Zuki and Lupo 2008

National Weather Digest: Kelsey et al. 2007 Part II application

Atmosfera: Kelsey et al. 2007 Part I

Journal of Climate: Barriopedro et al. 2006

Climate Change in Midwest Oaks

Snows: National Weather Digest: Lupo et al. 2005

Snows: Physical Geography: Berger et al. 2002

Tornadoes: Transactions MO Academy of Science: Akyuz et al. 2004

Heat Island: Atmos. Sci. Let.: Buckley et al. 2008

Heat Island: Transactions: Grathwohl et al. 2009

Heat Island: Transactions MO Academy of Science: Lupo et al. 2004

Heat Island: National Weather Digest Lupo et al. 2003

TV-Precipitation-Broadcast: National Weather Digest: Hagen et al. 2008

TV-Temperatures-Broadcast: National Weather Digest: Lupo et al. 2003

Article on Climate Modeling written for ICECAP.US - International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project

Article on Feedbacks written for ICECAP.US - International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project

Journal of Climate: Wiedenmann et al. 2002

WMO Report: Mokhov et al. 2002

Transactions, MO Academy of Sciences Ratley et al. 2002

Journal of Climate: Bals-Elsholtz et al. 2001

National Weather Digest: Lupo and Johnston, 2000 - take a look at the results we got!

Climate Dynamics: Lupo Oglesby Mokhov 1997

Tellus: Lupo and Smith 1995

Other PR Publications

The 2020 Stats on Global Blocking: An assessment

Editorial - 10th Anniversary of Atmosphere: Stats and articles

Mokhov, Lupo, Prokofyeva Blocking Tendencies - WMO Technical Report

Publication history of NWD

NIPCC II 2013 Author Ch 1

NIPCC 2011 Contributor Ch 1 Reviewer

NIPCC 2009 Contributor Ch 6 Reviewer

BAMS Meeting Summary Advancing Renewables in the Midwest

BAMS Meeting Summary WAFICUS2

BAMS Meeting Summary WAFICUS1

Melick et al 2008 JGR Thundersnow and Stability

Market et al 2006 JGR Thundersnow

IPPC AR2 WG1 Ch 6 Cont. auth.

New Windchill Report 2003

The American Civil War 150 / Powerpoints

I have always had a keen interest in the American Civil War, and this year commemorates the 150th Anniversary of the start of this conflict. The early battles in Missouri are often overlooked as historians and Civil War buffs tend to focus on the imporance of Civil War Battles in the East. However, Missouri was an important battle ground and whether or not Missouri would ulimately secede may have been decided on the battlefield. The weather played a role in the outcome of some early battles. In cooperation with students James Michael Madden and John Moon III, we reconstruct the possible role played by weather in each of these skirmishes. Thanks go out to Dr. D.J. Burnette at the University of Arkansas whose temperature records from the era were helpful in reconstructing the weather. The Battle of Wilson's Creek was presented at the Missouri Academy of Science in 2009. The Battle of Carthage was presented a year later, and Legington in the same year.

The Battle of Carthage, MO, July 5th 1861

The Battle of Wilson's Creek, MO, August 9th - 10th 1861

The Battle of Lexington, MO, September 13th - 20th 1861



Presentations / Powerpoints

ATMOS22 presentation in MP4

Drought in the Midwest: Given for the George Marshal Institute at the National Press Club 27 June 2006.

The Science of Drought and Flood Prediction: Drought 2012

My Take on Global Warming

Open Letter to the US House and Senate

My Presentation at COMET / COMAP June 2010 on predictability

My Presentation on Blocking at the Russian Academy of Science and the State University of NY at Oswego.

My Presentation to the 3rd International Conference on Climate Change

My Presentation to the 7th International Conference on Climate Change

Jensen and Lupo Presentation to the Davos Atmosphere and Cryosphere Assembly 2013

Hurricane Safety

Tropical Spring Lectures 1-3!

Tropical Spring Lectures 4-6!



Curriculum Vitae

My Curriculum Vitae as of 27 July 2021


Copyright © 2012 Department of Soil, Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Missouri - Columbia