UMC Climate Change Group Long Range Forecast for Winter 2016 - 2017

Issued 15 September 2017

Remember - the Offical Forecast is not issued on the HTML site any longer. We're going to keep statistics only here. The Forecast descriptions and maps are now on powerpoint.

Forecast Scores since Winter 2002-2003. This represents 26 temperature and precipitation forecasts. our group continues to show some skill for the region above Climatology, and better than NCEP products. In terms of Skill, the difference between Climatology and perfection, we stand at 13% overall. NCEP at -10%. With temperature we are at 22%, but 0% with precipitation. Our summer forecasts are at 18%, while winter is at 8%

  • Forecasts Temp/precip points

  • Winter

  • GCC 16/12
  • Climo. 11/13
  • NCEP 7/11
  • Summer

  • GCC 14/15
  • Climo. 7/14
  • NCEP 8/13

  • Total

  • GCC 30/27
  • Climo. 18/27
  • NCEP 15/24