In a Recap of the Summer, at the start, there was concern that the summer of 2013 may be another dry year like last year. We did have two consecutive drought years. There are some famous double headers, 1916-1917, 1953-1954, and 1971-1972. 2012-2013 join this list. The ENSO remained in a neutral pattern, leaning La Nina. Neutral patterns can persist for as much as 5 years. Models continue to forecast persistence. We did not do so well. Our precipitation forecast was within normal, and temperatures bordered on outside normal. NCEP and climo also get it wrong. Overall, our summer forecast was not good. We predicted temperature to be about 0.5 standard deviations above normal. That gets us two points as the actual was -0.5 sigma below normal. NCEP and Climo kept pace. iWe said within the range of normal, but on the dry side. Precipitation was more than one sigma outside the normal. That means NCEP, Climo, and this group, missed it.
Winter 2013-2014 Forecast: We continue to be leaning La Nina. We are in a B/G type pattern, and this is predicted to continue. These SST patterns tend to be 50-50 on Warm cold, and both tend to lean wet. But, when G types are warm, they are very very warm. B-types tend to trend a bit chilly when they go negative. We're going to lean toward colder than normal from 0.5-1.0 stdevs, while wetter by the same. NCEP agrees with us on wetter, but says quite warm in the other direction. Farmer's almanac says cold and snowy. We're thinking 20 - 26 inches of snow here which is within the climatological normal, but a little higher than normal.
Here are the numbers for the Winter 2013-2014 forecast for Columbia Missouri and the surrounding region. The standard deviation (+/-) represents what we call the typical range for that value, and 70% of years should lie within this range. These are generally reliable for most of mid-Missouri from the Ozarks to the Iowa border and Eastern MO. Also, this year I've included verification statistics, see Lupo et al. 2008 - the link is Kelsey II on the main GCC page. Forecast scoring can also be found there, 2 points for a perfect forecast, and 0 for a bust.
NOTE: These are our forecasts and they are based on the information found in several publications on the Climate Group's website (see Climate Variability section). One should not consider that these will be 100% reliable. Also, they forecast the AGGREGATE statistical character of the summer (June, July, August) or winter (December, January, February) season. This does not mean that warm and cold spells, wet and dry spells will not all occur in one month or season. Please use with caution. If you have any questions contact me at: