UMC Climate Change Group Long Range Forecast for Winter 2015 - 2016


Issued 25 August 2015

This is the last Offical Forecast to be issued on the HTML site. We're going to keep statistics only here. The Forecast descriptions and maps will migrate to the powerpoint.

The Long Range Forecast for Winter 2015-2016 is good news for Missourians. Strong El Nino conditions are expected to persist into the spring according to the dynamic Models and statistical models. This woud mean a classical strong E. Pacific El Nino. These seasons are typically associated with drier and warmer winters in our region. NCEP is not too far off as they project near normal temperatures and drier conditions in our region as well. Their forecast is a "classical' one. We are on board for a warmer and drier winter.



The long range forecast for this Summer 2015 ended up just fine in temperature. We were in the right direction with precipitation, just not bullish enough. All in All another good summer forecast this year.



Our forecast for the winter of 2014 was just great. The El Nino was weak, but we had the "blob" out in the Gulf of Alaska region which set up for a "blocking" winter. It was cold early, but December was above normal as was January. But February was brutally cold into March. We were pleasantly suprised with the outcome. We got a lot of snow! Columbia Airport really does not represent Columbia proper with snow.



Here are the numbers for the Winter 2015-2016 forecast for Columbia Missouri and the surrounding region. The standard deviation (+/-) represents what we call the typical range for that value, and 70% of years should lie within this range. These are generally reliable for most of mid-Missouri from the Ozarks to the Iowa border and Eastern MO. Also, this year I've included verification statistics, see Lupo et al. 2008 - the link is Kelsey II on the main GCC page. Forecast scoring can also be found there, 2 points for a perfect forecast, and 0 for a bust.



NOTE: These are our forecasts and they are based on the information found in several publications on the Climate Group's website (see Climate Variability section). One should not consider that these will be 100% reliable. Also, they forecast the AGGREGATE statistical character of the summer (June, July, August) or winter (December, January, February) season. This does not mean that warm and cold spells, wet and dry spells will not all occur in one month or season. Please use with caution. If you have any questions contact me at:



Email: LupoA@missouri.edu