University of Missouri Forecast Contest

How to play:

Simply forecast the weather for Columbia, MO over a 24-hour period. This includes a maximum and minimum temperature within that 24-hour period and the amount of precipitation. The precipitation categories are given below. The forecast is due at 0000 GMT or 7:00 pm CDT (6:00 pm CST October to April). E-mail the forecast to the current game manager at contest@bergeron.snr.missouri.edu. Forecasts are issued Monday through Thursday excluding holidays, such as Thanksgiving Day or Spring Break. The forecast issued is valid for 0600 GMT to 0600 GMT the following day! That's 1:00 am to 1:00 am (midnight to midnight October to April). The game will run from 13 September, 2004 to 1 May, 2005.

Precipitation Categories:

0. None;
1. trace to .05";
2. 0.06 to 0.24";
3. 0.25 to 0.49";
4. 0.50 to 0.99";
5. 1.00" or greater

Verification:

Verification is obtained from the METAR reports and the MAX/MIN difax charts. In the event of missing or erroneous data, the COU verification is subject to the judgment of the forecast game manager or his/her designated representative.

Other players:

You can test your skills versus your colleagues, but you can also test them against other players such as Climatology, persistence, consensus, MOS, the GFSX and GFS models, and the National Weather Service. Climatology is the average expected conditions for a particular location for a particular day based on long-term averages (Met. Club Calendar). Consensus is the average forecast for the game participants. MOS probabilities will be taken directly from the MOS POP chart, and is at the discretion of the forecast game manager or his/her representative. National Weather Service probabilities will be taken from their forecast and these are also subject to the judgment of the forecast game manager.

Other rules:

If you miss a forecast and do not inform the forecast game manager, you will be given the Climatology forecast. If you know in advance that you will NOT be forecasting and do not want to be penalized, you may inform the forecast game manager that you'll need an "automated" forecast. This forecast will be issued to you at the discretion of the forecast game manager. He/She may choose to assess the MOS penalty. He/She may also give you a choice of receiving the MOS, MRF, AVN, persistence, or climatology.

Any player can leave the game at any time. If a player constantly misses forecasts, they may be dropped from the game at the discretion of the forecast game manager. Any player wishing to enter the game after the game has started may do so. This player will be assessed error points by being given MOS errors by the forecast game manager, or some other mutually agreed upon error.