Wednesday Night: Cloudy with Wind and Rain. Low: 33°F 

Thursday: Clear. High: 50°F 

Thursday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 38°F

Friday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 61°F 

Friday Night: Clear. Low: 34°F

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General Discussion: 

A cold front is currently propagating through Missouri. Temperatures are quickly dropping and are expected to get right above freezing (33°F) Wednesday night. Rain is expected with this cold front, with accumulations up to 0.07 in. Cooler temperatures (50°F) are going to be predominant Thursday, before warming back up again through the end of the week. 

• Slutter

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Forecasters: Slutter, Thee

Date Issued: 03/05/2025 23:00Z

Technical Discussion: 

Key messages

• A cold front is currently (as of 21z) moving through Missouri, dropping temperatures significantly and bringing in rain throughout Wednesday evening, as well as windy conditions. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are expected. 
• A shortwave trough is going to be moving through Friday morning, although no precipitation is expected. 
• Temperatures will steadily increase as the week progresses, bringing us back to right around seasonal average (57°F). 

Current satellite imagery shows a low pressure system that is currently propagating through the Upper Mississippi Valley. Winds are SW at the moment, but very quickly will be shifting to a NW flow as the cold front passes directly over the region within the hour (Wed 23z). A dry air intrusion was aiding in clear sky conditions earlier Wednesday, but as moisture is lofted in via the cold conveyor belt from the NE, cloud cover has become completely overcast. This trend will continue overnight Wednesday as the surface low meanders through Missouri and off to the east. The cold front associated with this low is expected to bring precipitation. With temperatures still above freezing, the precipitation type will be rain. Accumulations are forecasted to be up to 0.07 in. Rain will move out of Columbia by 8-10z Thursday. Moderate wind gusts have also been observed with the frontal passage, with gusts peaking at Sanborn Field at 39 mph. These winds will reach 40-50 mph Wednesday night before decreasing into Thursday as the tight pressure gradient of the surface low propagates off to the east.

The trough that is currently impacting the region is expected to move out of the area overnight Wednesday. As this happens, moisture will be lofted out of the region, providing us with clear conditions Thursday that will aid in radiational heating. These clear conditions will be short lived, as sounding analysis depicts high level moisture that will increase cloud cover throughout the evening Thursday. This shouldn’t prohibit radiational cooling, providing an expected low of 38°F. A shortwave trough is following behind the main trough and will impact the CWA Friday morning into the afternoon. While no precipitation is expected, there is omega present at 700mb, as well as ample vorticity at 500mb that will provide lift that will aid in cloud formation. Friday will be mostly cloudy as a result, with a high of 61°F. This puts Columbia, MO back near average temperatures for this time of year (57°F). A cold front is tied to this shortwave, although effects from this will be meager other than a temporary shift in winds to NW. These winds will be back to a southerly flow by Saturday evening. 

Once the shortwave is through the area, which will occur by Friday evening, a zonal flow will become predominant in the jet stream, bringing calm conditions through the end of the forecast period at 12z Saturday. Clear conditions are going to be present Saturday morning. Future forecasters should keep an eye on any temperature fluctuations, as well as the movement of the shortwave trough. 

• Slutter