Thursday Afternoon Forecast

Thursday Night: Mostly Clear. 16°F    

Friday: Partly Cloudy. 42°F  

Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy. 27°F    

Saturday: Few Clouds Increasing to Broken Cloud Cover. 38°F

Saturday Night: Mostly Cloudy with a Chance of Wintery Mix (40%). 26°F

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General Discussion: 

After the snow earlier this week Columbia can expect a brief break in the weather over tonight and Friday with a chance (40%) of a wintery mix of precipitation Saturday night going into Sunday. Prepare accordingly for the weekend by giving ample time to defrost cars and increased driving times.

-John

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Forecaster: John, Alferink, Adkerson

Date Issued: 12/04/2025 21:00:00 UTC   

Technical Discussion:

Key Message:

• Chance of a wintery mix on Saturday night going into Sunday morning.

Thursday

Current conditions for Columbia are light variable winds with a sky condition of SCT250. The CWA is under the influence of high pressure to the East and below the left entrance quadrant of a jet streak both indicating a more stable environment. A generally zonal flow over CONUS for the majority of the forecast period. Both GFS and NAM are in agreement of a lack of moisture causing higher diurnal effects to the low temperature for the day (16°F).

Friday

Friday around 12z there are increased vorticity values and minimal values of divergence at the jet level at 15z on both models. This is a good indication of the start of increased cloud cover coming into the CWA. Friday night will be mostly cloudy, decreasing the difference in the low and high temperatures going into Saturday morning (Low: 27°F, High: 38°F). Clouds begin to clear early Saturday morning to a FEW sky condition.

Saturday

Saturday morning around 09z an increase in cloud cover is expected due to a cutoff low pressure system approaching mid-Missouri throughout the day. A wintery mix of precipitation is expected Saturday night (40%). Increased vorticity values on both models at 06z-15z Saturday as well later on in the night starting at around 06z Sunday. Raised omega values are shown at 700mb at 03z Sunday, as well as moisture advection coming into the CWA at the same time. Soundings show a very saturated environment during all of Saturday night going into Sunday.

Future forecasters should keep an eye on the cutoff low that comes into the CWA Sunday morning as well as the timing of wintery precipitation Saturday night going into Sunday morning.

-John

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