Monday – Abundant sunshine. High: 54
Monday Night – Becoming cloudy. Low: 36
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. Decreasing clouds after sunrise. High: 43
Tuesday Night – Clear. Low: 33
Wednesday – Sunny. High: 51
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DISCUSSION:
The Campus Weather Forecast is back for another semester! Unlike last week, this week’s forecast is looking much more appealing to lovers of sunshine and warmer weather. Plenty of sunshine on Monday will warm the cold morning temperatures into the low 50s by the afternoon. A low pressure system over the Chicagoland region will drag a cold front across Missouri early Tuesday morning. Some sprinkles can’t be ruled out, but anything heavier is not expected. Temperatures stay slightly cooler on Tuesday before rebounding into the mid 50s by the middle of the week
Travis
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Forecasters: Blodgett, Travis
Date Issued: 01/29/2024 10:00 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
After what seems like an eternity of cold, foggy, misty weather–the sky has already cleared and sunshine will be much more plentiful this week. An upper-level, amplified ridge over the western CONUS will build into the region and will be responsible for warmer temperatures and sunshine. Largely leaned toward GFS guidance for this forecast due to subtle difference between it and the NAM regarding a shortwave expected to clip the region Monday night into Tuesday morning.
As mentioned above, a clipper shortwave will propagate southeast on the backside of a longwave trough over the eastern CONUS. Mid-Missouri will largely miss out on the most impactful weather associated with this system which will be well to the east, mainly in the Ohio River Valley. The center of the 500-hPa low will stay well to the east, moving southeast over Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, and into the Ohio River Valley and Appalachia. This system will drag a relatively weak and dry cold front across Missouri around 09Z on Tuesday. This will keep temperatures slightly lower for Tuesday and Tuesday night. This is when the GFS and NAM begin to diverge in their solutions. The NAM is a bit more aggressive regarding extent to which cold air will infiltrate southwest while the GFS is more aggressive with moisture in a similar fashion. Current thinking is a blend between the two solutions. Given the placement of the 500-hPa low, the coldest air will stay to the east-northeast as abundant moisture struggles to reach this far south.
That said, can’t rule isolated sprinkles along the cold front early Tuesday morning but chances are very slim. GFS soundings (the moister of the solutions) depict a near-surface dry layer that does not completely erode. With little forcing for ascent so far away from the parent system, drop growth will be inefficient and therefore drops will struggle to reach the ground. Clouds will be quick to clear after sunrise and winds shift out of the southwest later Tuesday as surface high pressure moves in and to the east. Temperatures will then climb into the 50s by Wednesday as the warming trend continues.
Travis