Campus Weather Forecast
- Tuesday Morning Forecast
Tuesday: Cloudy with afternoon snow. High: 9°F
Tuesday Night: Snow ending overnight. Low: 3°F
Wednesday: Cloudy with flurries. High: 12°F
Wednesday Night: Decreasing Clouds. Low: -4°F
Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High: 17°F
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General Discussion:
A break in the snow this morning will pave way for another accumulating round of snow this afternoon and evening. A couple more inches are still expected with bitter cold temperatures the next few days. Wind chills will be below zero for most of the forecast period with frostbite potential if skin is exposed for long enough.
Simmons, Beach
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Forecasters: Beach, Simmons
Date Issued: 02/18/2025 10:30 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Winter Weather Advisory continues for today with additional snowfall expected
- Dangerous cold the next few days with wind chills well below zero
Mid-level frontogenic banding that brought banded snowfall overnight has subsided and dry time is ensuing temporarily. Radar imagery as of 15Z showed an increase in snowfall both in coverage and intensity starting to develop in Southwest Missouri. This increase is a result of a propagating shortwave trough in the Central Plains moving eastward today. Associated mid-level spin and lift ahead of the trough axis will continue to support snowfall production as a surface low begins to deepen in the Red River Valley in Oklahoma. Deterministic guidance has the 850 mb low trekking northeastward through Arkansas which will allow for the snow shield to spread northward. An associated warm front with the low will lift northward across Southern Missouri this afternoon aiding in precipitation as well. HREF probabilities for one hour accumulation and deterministic guidance for three hour accumulation show a sharp cut-off in precipitation along the I-70 corridor and points just north. This lends medium confidence in snowfall amounts along that corridor with better chances for higher accumulation closer to the Ozarks. Due to anomalously cold temperatures for February (Avg High: 47), snow to liquid ratios will be the 16:1–18:1 range. Ensemble QPF amounts show a range of roughly 0.1 to 0.2 inches of liquid equivalent for Columbia. This leads us to believe that new snowfall will be generally 1-3″ this afternoon/evening with snow ending from west to east overnight. This will at least lead to minor impacts in Mid-Missouri with snow easily sticking to any surface including roadways so slick travel is expected into Wednesday morning.
Temperatures bottom out close to zero again for morning lows with wind chills near -10 for Wednesday morning. Vorticity maxima will swing through the Central US on Wednesday with the associated troughing. In addition, some low-level moisture will still be prevalent in the form of cloud cover and cyclonic flow could spit out a few flurries (20%). The trough axis swings through Wednesday-Thursday and decreasing clouds will allow temperatures to fall even further Wednesday night. With light northerly winds and a snowpack on the ground, we elected to drop temperatures a couple more degrees than the previous shift. Wind chills will be between -15 and -20 degrees which will be the coldest of the forecast period. Thursday will see more in the form of sunshine and a few clouds as low level ridging and high pressure builds in.
-Simmons, Beach
Monday Night: Cloudy/Snow flurries. Low: 6°F
Tuesday: Cloudy/Snow chances. High: 11°F
Tuesday Night: Snow. Low: 5°F
Wednesday: Cloudy. High: 12°F
Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Low: -2°F
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General Discussion:
Chances of snow stick with us over the next couple of days with the highest chances falling Monday night into Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. With it this week comes a bitter chill. Extra precaution should be taken when travelling early in the day due to both snow on roadways and hazardous cold.
Carrier, Iffrig
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Forecasters: Carrier, Iffrig
Date Issued: 02/17/2025 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Snowfall totals 2”-4” through Wednesday.
- Dangerous temperatures and wind chills pose high risk
- Hazards are expected to increase with the continued cold temperatures.
An upper-level low pushing down from Canada is the main large-scale feature driving our local weather this week with its trough axis forming off to our west shifting the overall zonal flow to a more southwesterly direction, all while maintaining a persistent shift to the southeast. This upper level low extends down to the 500mb level and, in its shift south, is promoting the development of a line of vorticity that will move across the area throughout the day on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. As the low pushes further south on Wednesday it will bring with it a large area of vorticity though this is less likely to be impactful. Mid to low level moisture will stick around consistently until midday Wednesday, likely being affected by the initial line of vorticity but moving out before the main body of vorticity moves in along with the low. As this low moves though, significant cold air advection will as well bringing with it near record low (-6°F) temperatures contributing to the frigid conditions that we are expecting to be an impactful hazard over the next few days.
The main source of uncertainty with this storm is how much snow will we actually get. As it stands now, the national weather service’s probabilistic snow exceedance product gives us a 90% chance of >2”, a 49% chance of >4” and an 18% chance of >6” of snow. Various other probabilistic models are torn with some predicting a fraction of an inch and others predicting 8-10”. The main factors that will significantly alter how much snow we get will be how early the upper level low pressure system pushes southwards and if a dry slot develops. This snow system will be moving mainly west to east with a small south component due to upper level motions pushing south. If that system moves south faster than anticipated it will severely impact our snow totals, conversely if it stays north for longer, there is a higher chance of higher snowfall totals. The presence of a dry slot would also significantly cut into our snowfall totals, as it did with last week’s storm. This would drastically reduce the depth of the atmosphere in which snowflakes could form, reducing the possible accumulation. Regardless of how much snow actually falls, slick road conditions and health issues due to the frigid temperatures are still significant concerns and proper precautions should be taken to ensure public safety.
-Carrier
- Monday Afternoon Forecast
Monday Night: Cloudy/Snow flurries. Low: 6°F
Tuesday: Cloudy/Snow chances. High: 11°F
Tuesday Night: Snow. Low: 5°F
Wednesday: Cloudy. High: 12°F
Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Low: -2°F
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General Discussion:
Chances of snow stick with us over the next couple of days with the highest chances falling Monday night into Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. With it this week comes a bitter chill. Extra precaution should be taken when travelling early in the day due to both snow on roadways and hazardous cold.
Carrier, Iffrig
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Forecasters: Carrier, Iffrig
Date Issued: 02/17/2025 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Snowfall totals 2”-4” through Wednesday.
- Dangerous temperatures and wind chills pose high risk
- Hazards are expected to increase with the continued cold temperatures.
An upper-level low pushing down from Canada is the main large-scale feature driving our local weather this week with its trough axis forming off to our west shifting the overall zonal flow to a more southwesterly direction, all while maintaining a persistent shift to the southeast. This upper level low extends down to the 500mb level and, in its shift south, is promoting the development of a line of vorticity that will move across the area throughout the day on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. As the low pushes further south on Wednesday it will bring with it a large area of vorticity though this is less likely to be impactful. Mid to low level moisture will stick around consistently until midday Wednesday, likely being affected by the initial line of vorticity but moving out before the main body of vorticity moves in along with the low. As this low moves though, significant cold air advection will as well bringing with it near record low (-6°F) temperatures contributing to the frigid conditions that we are expecting to be an impactful hazard over the next few days.
The main source of uncertainty with this storm is how much snow will we actually get. As it stands now, the national weather service’s probabilistic snow exceedance product gives us a 90% chance of >2”, a 49% chance of >4” and an 18% chance of >6” of snow. Various other probabilistic models are torn with some predicting a fraction of an inch and others predicting 8-10”. The main factors that will significantly alter how much snow we get will be how early the upper level low pressure system pushes southwards and if a dry slot develops. This snow system will be moving mainly west to east with a small south component due to upper level motions pushing south. If that system moves south faster than anticipated it will severely impact our snow totals, conversely if it stays north for longer, there is a higher chance of higher snowfall totals. The presence of a dry slot would also significantly cut into our snowfall totals, as it did with last week’s storm. This would drastically reduce the depth of the atmosphere in which snowflakes could form, reducing the possible accumulation. Regardless of how much snow actually falls, slick road conditions and health issues due to the frigid temperatures are still significant concerns and proper precautions should be taken to ensure public safety.
-Carrier