Campus Weather Forecast
- Monday Morning Forecast
Monday 3/9
Monday: Clear. High: 80°F
Monday Night: Partly Clear. Low: 59°F
Tuesday: Partly Sunny. High: 82°F
Tuesday Night: Thunderstorms (95%). Low: 50°F
Wednesday: Rainy with chances of rumbles of thunder (80%). High: 61°F
=============================================================================
General Discussion:
Clear conditions dominate the region through the day on Monday with plenty of sunshine. Thunderstorms with potentially strong winds and hail will be the main threat through the forecast period with the strongest storms occurring on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
– Wyrick
=============================================================================
Forecasters: Graves, Schifferdecker, Wyrick
Date Issued: 3/9/2026 10:00 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Zonal flow will allow for clear conditions and warm temperatures on Monday
- There is high confidence (95%) in Thunderstorm chances on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
- Strong winds and hail are the biggest threats due to a mid-level dry air intrusion and elevated CAPE values on Tuesday night
The GFS and NAM were used to account for their opposing biases when forecasting precipitation.
Monday
Conditions on Monday remain very calm and clear as zonal flow dominates the region at all levels. The low level jet remains present in the region though the entire forecast period, though wind speeds decrease over the course of the day, reaffirming the clear conditions. 500 mb vorticity increases in southern and central Missouri through the day along with surface relative humidity values, which exceed 80% by nightfall. This may result in some light cloud cover overnight.
Tuesday
Clouds remain present through the morning hours on Tuesday. Wind divergence at 250 mb begins to increase through Mid-Missouri at 15Z, signaling the beginning of the more active pattern moving into the region. Two low-pressure systems, one in the southwestern United States and the northern Great Plains, allow for vorticity to increase significantly along a frontal boundary from the Upper Mississippi River Valley through south Texas by 21Z. Vertical velocity begins to increase at this time as well. Both vorticity and vertical velocity remain elevated through the end of the forecast period. Because of the looming front, Tuesday’s high temperatures can be expected to rise into the 80s due to prefrontal compressional warming. This is very elevated for this time of year as average temperatures are in the mid 50s.
Wednesday
On Wednesday at 03Z, moisture begins to build into the region with the help of southerly winds encouraging advection. By 09Z, a deep trough begins to settle into the Mid-Missouri area, further supporting the active pattern. At this same time, 700 mb and 850 mb relative humidity values exceed 90% and the jet streak reaches peak wind speeds. These levels remain elevated through the end of the forecast period. The combination of these conditions suggest high chances of thunderstorms and rainfall ahead of a cold front, making it a catafront. Soundings from the timeframe of precipitation (Tuesday night through Wednesday morning) indicate a possibility for hail and strong winds, suggested by a mid-level dry air intrusion. CAPE values exceed 3000 j/kg at 21Z on Tuesday and 00Z on Wednesday, suggesting substantial energy to fuel the storm system. For this reason, Mid-Missouri is in a slight risk according to the SPC convective outlook. Future forecasters should continue to monitor the potential for severe weather. Additionally, be aware of clearing conditions and falling temperatures following the passage of this cold front.
– Wyrick, Schifferdecker
- Friday Evening Forecast (03/06/2026)
Friday Night: Strong Thunderstorms, Some Severe. 56°F
Saturday: Mostly Cloudy. 62°F
Saturday Night: Decreasing Clouds. 38°F
Sunday: Clear. 67°F
Sunday Night: Clear 49°F
=============================================================================
General Discussion:
Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible throughout Friday night with two rounds expected. The first round will be capable of producing all severe weather hazards. The second line is expected to be weaker, but could produce large hail up to golf ball sized and damaging winds up to 70 mph. The weekend looks to be much calmer with temperatures feeling very spring-like, in the low to mid 60s with cloud cover decreasing.
– Scheerer
=============================================================================
Forecasters: Scheerer, Perrette
Date Issued: 03/05/2026 0:00Z
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
– Severe thunderstorms possible for late Friday night, with all hazards possible.
– Calmer conditions for the weekend with spring like highs remaining.
Friday Night
Mid Missouri is expected to have two rounds of strong to severe storms move through the area with all severe hazards possible including large hail up to golf ball sized, damaging wind gusts up to 70mph, and a tornado or two. As of 23z the first round has begun to form over western Missouri and is expected to move into Central Missouri over the next few hours. There has not been a dominant cell that has taken over this group of storms. However if one does, they are in a potent environment that could lead to the development of supercell thunderstorms with 0-6 km wind shear values > 40 kts and 0-3 km Storm Relative Helicity values around 280 m^2/s^2. However, there is a large cap in place with CIN values around -250 J/kg that may inhibit development. The LLJ will be very active throughout the evening with winds screaming from the southwest at 40-50 kts which may lead to more wind shear to support these storms throughout the night.
The second round will develop off to the west in eastern Kansas and Western Missouri, forming a line of QLCS thunderstorms and move through the overnight hours. This line looks weaker than the first due to the more linear storm mode. The main threats that look possible with this would be damaging straight line winds and large hail. This is due to 0-3 km bulk shear around 30 kts that will help aid the development of large hail. In terms of damaging winds, DCAPE (downdraft CAPE) values will be greater than 500 J/kg, which will lead to strong mid level winds to mix down to the surface. Although we have sufficient low level shear (33 kts) and strong low level SRH values (410), there is not enough energy to lead to the development of tornadoes within the line. The line is expected to fully move out by early Saturday morning.
Weekend
After the storm system moves through, a calm weather pattern will build in and last throughout the weekend. The upper level flow will continue to be from the southwest as the upper level low in the baja region continues to impact the midwest. Along with this, mid level disturbance and sufficient moisture will continue to funnel into Columbia due to southwesterly winds. This will lead to continued cloud cover throughout the day Saturday. However, this low will be cut off from the upper level flow by Sunday morning, leading Mid-Missouri to return to light, zonal, westerly flow around 20 to 25 kt. This will cause conditions to dry out significantly as our winds flip to the west, causing clear conditions to close out the weekend. Future forecasts will need to continue to monitor the chance for severe weather as we enter into next week.
– Scheerer, Perrette