Campus Weather Forecast
- Thursday Morning Forecast
Thursday Morning Forecast- 3/20/2025, 16:00Z
Thursday Morning: Cloudy with Wind and Rain. Low: 33°F
Thursday Night: Clear. High: 50°F
Friday Morning: Increasing Clouds. Low: 38°F
Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy. High: 61°F
Saturday: Clear. Low: 34°F
=============================================================================
General Discussion:
Temperatures consistently remain much cooler than that of recent weeks, with night time lows dropping into the lower 30’s throughout this week. Saying this, dry conditions remain constant, initiating a risk for fire danger. This lack of moisture, paired with mildly gusty conditions (20mph) solidifies this risk in the coming days.
– Bivens
=============================================================================
Forecasters: Bean, Bivens
Date Issued: 03/20/2025, 16:00Z
The effects of the recent cold front passage are extremely prevalent, indicating extreme frontal strength just in the past 24 hours. In this time frame, we have experienced a decrease of 31°F, with surrounding towns encountering similar temperature adaptations. After a period of brief showers yesterday morning and even some occasional flurries into the night, we now will go into a duration of no precipitation in our area. While the reasons for this limited presence of precipitation are vast, we will commence this discussion with the status of the upper levels. After a long wave trough exits our region later this morning, we will soon be under the regime of primarily zonal flow, not greeted by any upper level disturbances until the later hours of Saturday. Although the subtropical jet is fairly prominent over Missouri through much of this forecast period, we remain mostly under the exterior bands of this aforementioned section of fast moving upper level winds. Saying this, moving into Saturday, the interior jet core of the polar jet begins to advance over our region, cultivating much faster wind speeds (100+ knots). This being said, any upper level clouds that were to form would be extremely fast moving in and out of our sky view.
Draping circulation across much of the eastern half of CONUS piques some interest in potential unsettled weather, but because of the pathetic moisture values and subsidence profile throughout much of the atmosphere, it will not surmount to anything. We will undergo a considerable amount of fluctuation in vorticity amounts over the coming days, with the highest values of spin entering Missouri just after this forecast period on Saturday night. Speaking more specifically to the moisture values at both 700 and 850mb, any noteworthy moisture today egresses the Midwest early this afternoon. Occasional pockets of moisture become visible on both GFS and NAM maps, but these maps do not indicate this moisture will be particularly impressive. To obtain extensive cloud formation, forcing for ascent would be mandatory, which is overall lacking. Clouds today and most of Friday will be mostly upper level, with an increase in mid-level clouds into the evening hours. Also noteworthy is the continuous profile of fast winds paired with the absence of a significant inversion throughout this forecast period. Although CAPE values are altogether pitiable, the lack of an inversion will aid in producing a remarkable fire danger risk.
Surface level solenoids indicate cold air advection with winds possessing a northerly component today, gradually shifting to a southerly component Friday and Saturday, explaining our expected warm-up. Per the general discussion, wind speeds of ~20mph are expected today and begin to die down tomorrow, and even more so Saturday (~5mph). While not addressed in its entirety in this AFD so far, the next forecast shift should ensure they grasp onto the potential for unsettled weather and measurable rain Saturday night, acknowledging the 3-day SPC outlook.
– Bivens
=============================================================================
Wednesday Night: Cloudy with Wind and Rain. Low: 33°F
Thursday: Clear. High: 50°F
Thursday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 38°F
Friday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 61°F
Friday Night: Clear. Low: 34°F
=============================================================================
General Discussion:
A cold front is currently propagating through Missouri. Temperatures are quickly dropping and are expected to get right above freezing (33°F) Wednesday night. Rain is expected with this cold front, with accumulations up to 0.07 in. Cooler temperatures (50°F) are going to be predominant Thursday, before warming back up again through the end of the week.
- Slutter
=============================================================================
Forecasters: Slutter, Thee
Date Issued: 03/05/2025 23:00Z
Technical Discussion:
Key messages
- A cold front is currently (as of 21z) moving through Missouri, dropping temperatures significantly and bringing in rain throughout Wednesday evening, as well as windy conditions. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are expected.
- A shortwave trough is going to be moving through Friday morning, although no precipitation is expected.
- Temperatures will steadily increase as the week progresses, bringing us back to right around seasonal average (57°F).
Current satellite imagery shows a low pressure system that is currently propagating through the Upper Mississippi Valley. Winds are SW at the moment, but very quickly will be shifting to a NW flow as the cold front passes directly over the region within the hour (Wed 23z). A dry air intrusion was aiding in clear sky conditions earlier Wednesday, but as moisture is lofted in via the cold conveyor belt from the NE, cloud cover has become completely overcast. This trend will continue overnight Wednesday as the surface low meanders through Missouri and off to the east. The cold front associated with this low is expected to bring precipitation. With temperatures still above freezing, the precipitation type will be rain. Accumulations are forecasted to be up to 0.07 in. Rain will move out of Columbia by 8-10z Thursday. Moderate wind gusts have also been observed with the frontal passage, with gusts peaking at Sanborn Field at 39 mph. These winds will reach 40-50 mph Wednesday night before decreasing into Thursday as the tight pressure gradient of the surface low propagates off to the east.
The trough that is currently impacting the region is expected to move out of the area overnight Wednesday. As this happens, moisture will be lofted out of the region, providing us with clear conditions Thursday that will aid in radiational heating. These clear conditions will be short lived, as sounding analysis depicts high level moisture that will increase cloud cover throughout the evening Thursday. This shouldn’t prohibit radiational cooling, providing an expected low of 38°F. A shortwave trough is following behind the main trough and will impact the CWA Friday morning into the afternoon. While no precipitation is expected, there is omega present at 700mb, as well as ample vorticity at 500mb that will provide lift that will aid in cloud formation. Friday will be mostly cloudy as a result, with a high of 61°F. This puts Columbia, MO back near average temperatures for this time of year (57°F). A cold front is tied to this shortwave, although effects from this will be meager other than a temporary shift in winds to NW. These winds will be back to a southerly flow by Saturday evening.
Once the shortwave is through the area, which will occur by Friday evening, a zonal flow will become predominant in the jet stream, bringing calm conditions through the end of the forecast period at 12z Saturday. Clear conditions are going to be present Saturday morning. Future forecasters should keep an eye on any temperature fluctuations, as well as the movement of the shortwave trough.
- Slutter
- Wednesday Evening Forecast (03/19/2025) 23:00Z
Wednesday Night: Cloudy with Wind and Rain. Low: 33°F
Thursday: Clear. High: 50°F
Thursday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 38°F
Friday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 61°F
Friday Night: Clear. Low: 34°F
=============================================================================
General Discussion:
A cold front is currently propagating through Missouri. Temperatures are quickly dropping and are expected to get right above freezing (33°F) Wednesday night. Rain is expected with this cold front, with accumulations up to 0.07 in. Cooler temperatures (50°F) are going to be predominant Thursday, before warming back up again through the end of the week.
- Slutter
=============================================================================
Forecasters: Slutter, Thee
Date Issued: 03/05/2025 23:00Z
Technical Discussion:
Key messages
- A cold front is currently (as of 21z) moving through Missouri, dropping temperatures significantly and bringing in rain throughout Wednesday evening, as well as windy conditions. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are expected.
- A shortwave trough is going to be moving through Friday morning, although no precipitation is expected.
- Temperatures will steadily increase as the week progresses, bringing us back to right around seasonal average (57°F).
Current satellite imagery shows a low pressure system that is currently propagating through the Upper Mississippi Valley. Winds are SW at the moment, but very quickly will be shifting to a NW flow as the cold front passes directly over the region within the hour (Wed 23z). A dry air intrusion was aiding in clear sky conditions earlier Wednesday, but as moisture is lofted in via the cold conveyor belt from the NE, cloud cover has become completely overcast. This trend will continue overnight Wednesday as the surface low meanders through Missouri and off to the east. The cold front associated with this low is expected to bring precipitation. With temperatures still above freezing, the precipitation type will be rain. Accumulations are forecasted to be up to 0.07 in. Rain will move out of Columbia by 8-10z Thursday. Moderate wind gusts have also been observed with the frontal passage, with gusts peaking at Sanborn Field at 39 mph. These winds will reach 40-50 mph Wednesday night before decreasing into Thursday as the tight pressure gradient of the surface low propagates off to the east.
The trough that is currently impacting the region is expected to move out of the area overnight Wednesday. As this happens, moisture will be lofted out of the region, providing us with clear conditions Thursday that will aid in radiational heating. These clear conditions will be short lived, as sounding analysis depicts high level moisture that will increase cloud cover throughout the evening Thursday. This shouldn’t prohibit radiational cooling, providing an expected low of 38°F. A shortwave trough is following behind the main trough and will impact the CWA Friday morning into the afternoon. While no precipitation is expected, there is omega present at 700mb, as well as ample vorticity at 500mb that will provide lift that will aid in cloud formation. Friday will be mostly cloudy as a result, with a high of 61°F. This puts Columbia, MO back near average temperatures for this time of year (57°F). A cold front is tied to this shortwave, although effects from this will be meager other than a temporary shift in winds to NW. These winds will be back to a southerly flow by Saturday evening.
Once the shortwave is through the area, which will occur by Friday evening, a zonal flow will become predominant in the jet stream, bringing calm conditions through the end of the forecast period at 12z Saturday. Clear conditions are going to be present Saturday morning. Future forecasters should keep an eye on any temperature fluctuations, as well as the movement of the shortwave trough.
- Slutter