Campus Weather Forecast
- Monday Afternoon Forecast 4/13/26
Monday Night: Partly Cloudy. 68°F
Tuesday: Partly Sunny. 84°F
Tuesday Night: Rain (50%). 67°F
Wednesday: Cloudy. 77°F
Wednesday Night: Rain (60%). 57°F
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General Discussion:
Seasonally warmer temperatures persist through the end of the week as both Tuesday night and Wednesday night bring the next chances for rain. Tuesday, during the day, will see high temperatures rise into the low 80s before rain chances increase (50%) for Tuesday night. Wednesday highs won’t reach as high as Tuesday, but will continue to be above average (66°F). Wednesday night a cold front passes through the area sparking another chance for rain (60%) and the possibility for severe weather.
– Magnuson
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Forecasters: Brickler, Magnuson
Date Issued: 4/13/2026 5:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages
- Above-average temperatures (66°F) persist through the end of the forecast period
- Tuesday Night rain chances increase (50%) as well as the possibility for damaging winds
- Wednesday evening a cold front makes its way through the region producing widespread rain (60%) as well as the possibility for damaging winds and hail
Monday Night – Tuesday
A positively-titled trough windward of the Rockies begins to trek eastward through the night. As this trough continues eastward, it begins to eject into the Great Plains and Upper-Midwest. A few shortwaves identified at the 500-mb level advect some disturbances of vorticity into the area. Due to this, the aforementioned ejection could bring severe weather for Monday night into Tuesday. However, the inhibiting factors far outweigh those in favor of this severe weather. Throughout the night, a stout cap at the 850-mb level inhibits any possible convection from occurring. With lack of any other forcing mechanisms limiting anything from firing, there are instability and low-level shear handoffs present. Nearing the surface, conditions dry out heading into Tuesday indicating limited cloud cover for most of the day. This will allow for convective heating, coupled with a southerly flow at the surface, to raise temperatures into the low 80s for tomorrow.
Tuesday Night – Wednesday night
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning brings the next potential for severe weather. At the 250-mb level, increased upper-level divergence on the right exit region of the jet streak moves overhead, encouraging rising motion into the region. This, coupled with a low-pressure system associated with the aforementioned trough, advects moisture from the gulf into Mid-Missouri around Wednesday at 00z, setting the stage for widespread rain showers. The forcing mechanism for this will be the Low-Level Jet with high omega values (-25 ubar/s) around Wednesday at 03z. Ensemble models are indicative of anywhere between >0.1” (95%) to >0.25” (40%) of rainfall associated with this system. However, DCAPE values >1000 J/kg and positive Omega values stretching from the SFC up to 300-mb will look to limit any severe thunderstorms from forming. However, because of these strong DCAPE values, the severe threat for this system will likely be damaging winds.
For most of the day Wednesday, leftover cloud cover persists from the widespread rain in the morning. This will cause highs to only reach the upper 70s, as the attention of the forecast shifts to Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. During this time period, a cold front starts to enter the region around Thursday 03z. At the same time, increased upper-level divergence as well as the jet streak moving directly overhead, with sufficient mixing, will increase wind speeds down at the surface. At the 500-mb level a shortwave forms over the corner of the Nebraska-Iowa border while bringing increased vorticity disturbances into the area. Continuing down, RH values >90% near the surface will keep the air saturated before the FROPA. As the front starts to move through, it will act as a lifting mechanism. This will also produce widespread rain and the possibility of damaging winds and hail due to mid-level dry air intrusions present. The rain will exit the area leaving lingering clouds to start Thursday.
Future forecasters should look for the shortwave identified at the 500-mb level to grow into an open wave as it continues eastward through Thursday.
– Magnuson
- Monday Morning Forecast 4/13
Monday: Passing Clouds. High: 83°F
Monday Night: Partly Clear. Low: 68°F
Tuesday: Clearing Clouds. High: 86°F
Tuesday Night: Thunderstorms (35%). Low: 67°F
Wednesday: Rainy with chances of thunder (60%). High: 79°F
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General Discussion:
Conditions will be humid throughout the day Monday with rain chances increasing for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Chances for thunderstorms (35%) increase overnight Tuesday night with main hazards being hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes are not ruled out but chances remain low. Thunderstorms and rain will linger throughout the day Wednesday with chances for rumbles of thunder expected (60%).
– Graves
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Forecasters: Wyrick, Graves
Date Issued: 4/13/2026 10:00 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday Night (35%) with the main hazards being hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms will linger throughout the day Wednesday (60%).
- Mid-Missouri remains in a slight risk for severe weather according to the SPC, Tuesday and Wednesday with isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms possible.
The GFS and NAM were used to account for variations in the timing of certain features throughout the forecast period. The HRRR was used for sounding analysis as its convective allowing status is useful during the looming active weather pattern.
Monday
Westerly flow dominates the Mid-MO region throughout the day on Monday before an upper-level troughing pattern begins to settle into the region. By 15Z, the jet stream begins to impact the region, and its effects continue through the end of the forecast period. The LLJ remains present through the entirety of the forecast period as well, helping to advect moisture and warm air into Mid-MO. Vorticity values remain elevated through the daytime hours, providing lift for passing cloud cover. This cloud cover is supported by 850 mb and surface RH values over 80% that linger until 21Z. Despite limited insolation, temperatures will climb into the low 80s, well above the seasonal average of 66°F. Additionally, the strengthening of the LLJ overnight keeps low temperatures elevated into the high 60s.
Tuesday
The weather pattern throughout the day on Tuesday is dominated by a mid-latitude cyclone progressing eastward across the CONUS. Early Tuesday morning, upper level flow begins to shift to the south as the aforementioned trough enters the region. Though the presence of the jet stream remains, wind speeds remain limited to 75 knots, indicating that it is not the primary driver of active weather in the region. However, wind divergence increases around 00Z on Wednesday, signaling the beginning of convective activity. Throughout the daytime hours, Mid-MO is positioned within the warm sector of the mid-latitude cyclone, allowing the above-average temperatures to persist. Clouds will remain present as surface RH values stay elevated above 80% until 21Z. At this same time, the passage of a cold front associated with the mid-latitude cyclone enters Missouri, which will lead to thunderstorms in the early Wednesday morning hours.
Wednesday
Wind divergence remains elevated through 12Z on Wednesday, highlighting the window of time for thunderstorms. It is important to note that the GFS and NAM disagree on the location of this wind divergence, which may suggest that the most impactful storms could be north of the Mid-MO region. Vorticity peaks at 06Z, providing lift for the system as it sweeps across the area. At this same time, 700 mb RH values increase above 80%, showing where storms could fire across the state. The LLJ streak is present at 09Z, providing additional forcing for ascent for these storms. CAPE values associated with these storms remain above 2000 j/kg, though unimpressive direction shear may be a limiting factor, resulting in storm chances of 45%. The NAM suggests a mid-level dry air intrusion, showing that the main risks could be strong winds and hail. The passage of the cold front allows temperatures to decrease back into the high 70s. Future forecasters should be aware of storm chances for Wednesday night, leading into a clearer, much calmer Thursday.
- Wyrick