Campus Weather Forecast

Tuesday 02/17
Tuesday Night: Decreasing clouds. Low: 52°F

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 70°F

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 47°F

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High: 68°F

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 32°F

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General Discussion:

We continue to see well above average high temperatures for this time of year (Nearing 70°F) for the majority of the forecast period. A slight chance (10%) for precipitation will occur Tuesday night. On top of that, a major cold front will move through our area Thursday night bringing our temperatures down to near freezing (32°F) for our overnight low.

– Boyce

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Forecasters: Boyce

Date Issued: 02/17/2026 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages:
- A small chance of rain (10%) is expected to hit mid-Missouri Tuesday night.
- A strong cold front will move into our region Thursday evening into the night bringing our temperatures down to near freezing.
A mix of mid to upper level clouds are currently located over the entire state of Missouri. These clouds kept our temperatures slightly cooler than expected, only reaching a high of 61°F. Southerly winds did keep us from cooling down much farther as warm air from the south advected into Missouri. This cloud cover will persist for the remainder of the day and into the overnight hours while also bringing a slight chance of precipitation (10%) on Wed 03Z-Wed 09Z. A low pressure system that formed in South Dakota is bringing a weak cold front currently located over Nebraska and western Kansas that will impact our region Wed 06Z. A strong low level jet with winds reaching above 60 knots is also present. However, due to the lack of moisture throughout the atmosphere, any precipitation that could come with this short wave would be extremely light. Immediately after the cold front moves through, cloud cover will move out of the area Wed 10Z as the front brings in more dry air from the north.

Our conditions remain calm for the majority of Wednesday with no clouds, allowing our temperatures to reach near or at 70°F. More cloud cover will build into the region Wed 23Z as moisture from the Pacific Northwest flows into our region along with a new low pressure system. This new low pressure system will slowly move into the area through Fri 00Z. There is a potential chance for rain (10%), but the bulk of it seems to be northeast of us. We have some favorable vorticity and a strong LLJ, but the lack of moisture return at the surface remains the reason for a low risk of precipitation. While we may not get the rain, we will definitely feel the strong cold front that comes with it Fri 03Z. Our temperatures will reach a low of 32°F, a -30 degree drop off from the afternoon high (68°F). Temperatures will settle into our seasonal average (46°F high) for the remainder of the week as our winds shift from south to north/northeast. Future forecast shifts should keep an eye out for the possibility of another precipitation event this weekend.

– Boyce
(no title)

Forecasters: Hachting, Ventimiglia, John

Date Issued: 2/17/2026 10:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages

· Temperatures are expected to remain 15°F above average for the remainder of the forecast period

· Windy conditions throughout forecast period (20-30 mph)

· Slight chance for rain (20%) Tuesday night

The GFS and the NAM were used in this AFD as both models were concurring in the moisture availability and moisture advection to move into the area. These models also were similar in how they displayed the low level jet in providing the lift for the possible precipitation into Tuesday night.

Tuesday – Tuesday Night

The Missouri area is currently experiencing a ridging pattern as high pressure is present over most of the CONUS. Temperatures during Tuesday will remain warm as the ridging is present throughout the day. The area is currently experiencing short wave disturbances at the 500 mb level causing the current cloud cover. As the current ridging moves off to the east coast, the jet stream begins to settle over the forecast area. A jet streak will be associated with the overhead jet stream; the jet streak will enter mid-Missouri around Wednesday at 6Z, allowing for lift to occur overnight and providing the area with disturbances. Continuing into Tuesday night, a low-pressure system is moving across the northern CONUS, providing vorticity advection into the forecast area. The disturbance will enter the region on Wednesday at 9Z and will help a slight chance (20%) of rain. While lifting is present, the low moisture content is what will limit the rain chances overnight. The moisture at 700 mb level is lacking as the only slight moisture available is shown on the GFS on Wednesday at 6Z. The low 700 mb moisture content will help limit the chance (20%) of precipitation overnight. Moisture advection is more present on 850mb and the surface, occurring around Wednesday 3Z to 9Z and will provide moisture for the low rain chance (20%). The overhead low-level jet will also provide ascent overnight for the available moisture. During the day and the night winds will be gusting up to 30 mph, as the low-level jet passes over the Columbia area. The low-level jet will also provide lift for the rain chances (20%), but the main limiting factor is the lack of moisture at the 700 mb level. Temperatures during Tuesday will remain warm as the ridging is present throughout the day.

Wednesday – Thursday

When the overnight system of possible precipitation moves out of the area, the polar jet stream will continue to flow overhead, preventing the colder air from moving into the forecast area. Allowing the temperatures at the surface to remain 15°F warmer than average but bringing winds with gusts of up to 20 mph during the remainder of the forecast period. Wednesday will be dry through all levels in the atmosphere allowing for clear conditions all day. Another low-pressure system will move through Iowa on Thursday, 18Z, causing disturbance to move through the Missouri area. While there are plenty of periods of lift, moisture is lacking at all levels during this period. In the lower-level, little moisture is present when this system moves through the forecast area. This will only provide our area with slight cloud cover in the afternoon Thursday. Looking into the weekend, future forecast shifts should monitor the temperature beginning to decrease, along with the possibility of winter precipitation on Saturday.

-Hachting