Thursday February 1st – Afternoon
Thursday Night – Decreasing Cloud Cover. Low: 43 F
Friday – Turning drier, Partly Cloudy. High: 55 F
Friday Night – Increasing cloudiness. Low: 43 F
Saturday – Cloudy. High: 56 F
Saturday Night – Cloudy, slight chance for rain. Low: 38
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DISCUSSION:
Good afternoon and happy Thursday! Expect for temperatures to stay above average for the rest of the week, and into this weekend, staying in the mid to upper 50s, but lows will still stay cool in the upper 30s to the low 40s There is some sunshine being possible Friday as well, with increasing cloudiness heading into Friday night, with Saturday night showing some rain, but confidence is low for this happening.
– Thomas
Forecasters: Thomas, Melton
Date Issued: 2/1/24 6 PM
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Temperatures will stay above average from what is typical for early February
- An incoming low pressure system will pave the way for cloud cover and for a low chance of precipitation
The GFS and the NAM were used for this forecast period. Currently at 250 mb, a large ridge that extends well into Canada, is directly overhead the CONUS, which is bringing in southerly winds that is leading to warmer than average temperatures that will be observed throughout the rest of the week and into this weekend. There is also a weak low pressure system that is also observed at 250 mb in Western Kansas, with some WAA present, resulting in our cloudiness that is present today, As the low pressure moves to north and dissipates and with the upper level ridge moving east to be centered over Wisconsin, this will lead to partial clearing, and will lead to partly cloudy conditions for Friday.
Heading into Friday night, at 500 mb, there is a vorticity max over the four corners region that then slides into the Texas panhandle heading into Saturday and into Saturday night, while at the same time, at 850 mb , there is sufficient moisture that begins to build just west of the region, which will then lead to some precipitation to the west of Columbia because of a moderate LLJ, however, there is low confidence that this precipitation will reach the region that will amount to anything as there is little to no WAA that is over the city of Columbia.
Future forecasting shifts need to watch how the track of this low evolves over the course of the next couple of days, as any significant movement of the low pressure system to the northeast or the upper level ridge moves to east further could potentially lead to rainfall.
-Thomas
Wednesday January 31 – Afternoon
Wednesday Night – Clear. Low: 39 F
Thursday – Increasing throughout the day. High: 54 F
Thursday Night – Lingering cloud cover. Low: 43 F
Friday – Clouds breaking up throughout day. High: 51 FDISCUSSION:
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Low: 45 F
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DISCUSSION:
Happy hump day, tigers! Expect above temperatures for the rest of the week, with no temperatures reaching below 40 degrees this week. However, the nights will get chilly so bring jackets with you if you plan on being outside after the sun goes down. The rest of the week will be pretty cloudy as well, with intermittent sunshine peeking through only later in the week. Stay warm!
– Cargill
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Forecasters: Cargill, Robinson
Date Issued: 01/31/2024 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages
1. Temperatures will remain above average this week making for an unseasonably warm end of January.
2. Cloud cover throughout the rest of the week will keep heat trapped at the surface for the rest of the forecast period.
3. A building Omega block, with an associated high-pressure system, is moving into the Columbia area on Friday, shifting winds from the north to the west and south.
The GFS and NAM were used in tandem for this forecast. A developing Omega block is currently being observed at 300mb moving from west to east, with the ridge axis extending into southern Canada. The associated high-pressure system is causing the northerly winds Missouri has been experiencing to shift to the west initially, then to the south as the forecast period nears its end. This wind shift, as a result of the Omega block, will allow Columbia continue experiencing fair weather conditions and above average temperatures. Minimal divergence is observed at this level, causing little to no convergence at the surface. This fact, along with little to no vorticity at 500mb, leaves no hope for active weather throughout the forecast period.
Moisture aloft is not expected to develop at 700mb and 850mb until late Thursday, which is the probable cause for the forecast ̀s building clouds throughout the day. The Omega block ̀s associated low-pressure system is bringing in this moisture as it exits the CONUS. However, the system ̀s moisture seems to break apart as it enters the CWA, leading to the break up of clouds Friday into Friday night. A building LLJ is observed at 850mb to the west. This occurs right at the tail end of the forecasting period, so future forecasters should watch the LLJ as potential fuel for precipitation (considering the amount of moisture being drawn in so close to our geographical location).
Modeled soundings for Friday night support the return to more clear conditions. The absence of solenoids observed at the surface demonstrates the lack of WAA and CAA throughout the region. In addition, the SFC 3 Hr Accumulated Precip shows a increasing probability for rainfall in Kansas and Nebraska right at the end of the forecasting period. This is in tandem with the LLJ and should be monitored by future forecasting shifts as it moves east into the region.
– Cargill, Chirpich