Campus Weather Forecast
- Monday Evening Forecast
Monday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 63°F
Tuesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 87°F
Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 61°F
Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 87°F
Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 63°F
=============================================================================
General Discussion:
Cloud cover will continue to decrease into the overnight hours with a chance of fog early Tuesday morning, with warm dry weather moving in for the next few days. – Aldrich, Bean, Carrier
=============================================================================
Forecasters: Aldrich, Bean, Carrier
Date Issued: 09/16/2024 5:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages
- Dry warm weather leading to worsening drought conditions with no clear end in sight
- A ridge moving in from the west will prevent much of the active weather to our northwest and east from moving into our area.
Some diurnal showers and thundershowers developed earlier this afternoon thanks to some leftover energy from (the long-gone, yet still persistent leftovers of) former Hurricane Francine. At this point, that was our last chance of measurable rainfall for the foreseeable future as this forecast is being dominated by a desert southwest ridge that will move into the area – certainly, by the end of the week.
Looking at the 300-mb analysis, several large troughs of low-pressure exist to our west, and while the flow is somewhat meridional. the general flow of the upper-levels will encourage these troughs to skirt just to our west and northwest over the upcoming days. In fact, model guidance (both at 300-mb and 500-mb) suggest that an active period of weather will be possible across the upper-Midwest into the Dakotas. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge of high-pressure centered over Mexico will move northeastward into the central plains by Thursday, allowing for gradually moderating temperatures (highs in the upper 80s), along with an increase in low-level moisture. The end result will be a return to summer-like heat and humidity through the end of the week.
Indications in the upper-level flow advertise an opportunity for a pattern-change for the weekend and into early next week, however, and future Campus Weather Forecast shifts will want to monitor those trends.
-Aldrich, Bean, Carrier
- Monday, September 16th – Morning Forecast
Monday, September 16th – Morning Forecast
Monday: Partly Cloudy. High: 85°F
Monday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 63°F
Tuesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 87°F
Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 61°F
Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 87°F
=============================================================================
General Discussion:
After a slight chance of rain today, sunshine and above average temperatures will return and remain present over the course of the current forecast. A relatively stable weather pattern will build into the area and keep cloud cover to a minimum across central Missouri.
– Blodgett, Nobles
=============================================================================
Forecasters: Blodgett, Nobles
Date Issued: 09/16/2024 9:00 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages
- Last day of major cloud cover and rain chances
- A shift in winds will bring down the overnight lows
- Stable atmospheric patterns will reduce cloud cover and increase the high temperatures
As the low from former hurricane Francine dissipates, mid-Missouri will be getting one last day of dominant cloud cover and potential rain chances. This low will eventually move eastward and get cycled into the developing low near the Carolina region off the east coast. As this happens, high pressure from the ridge over the central and eastern CONUS will be the dominating factor in the atmosphere for the duration of this forecast.
The GFS is showing wind patterns shifting to a northwesterly flow at 250 mb as the low over Arkansas moves out of the midwestern region. This change in wind patterns will bring in more dry air, which reduce the cloud cover and bring down the overnight lows (low 60s.) The aforementioned broad ridge over central and eastern CONUS will bring stable air to the midwestern region, which in turn means hotter high temps (mid to upper 80s) and more passive weather patterns.
Moving down to 700 and 850 mb, there is still moisture present today from the weakening Arkansas low, however that will be clearing up throughout today to bring sunshine back into the area. Any chances of rain today will either fall to the south of the viewing area, or will not fall in general. There isn’t enough moisture at the surface to make a convincing case that there will be rain today. As the sun comes out, that will promote more daytime heating and increase the gap between the temperature and the dewpoint. As for the coming days in the forecast, moisture presence will be very little, with only a few clouds passing through occasionally.
-Blodgett, Nobles