Campus Weather Forecast
- Thursday Afternoon. December 5th, 2024
Thursday Afternoon. December 5th, 2024
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Windy. Low: 20°F
Friday:Mostly Sunny. High: 37°F
Friday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 25°F
Saturday: Sunny. High: 50°F
Saturday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 35°F
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General Discussion:
Cool conditions along with below average temperatures to start the forecasting period. Starting on Saturday, winds will turn to be from the south bringing warmer air. Clouds will increase starting Saturday Night bringing the possibility for precip Sunday.
– Nightingale, Franciscus
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Forecasters: Nightingale, Franciscus, Daniel
Date Issued: 12/05/2024 5:00 PM.
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Arctic cold temperatures for Thursday night and Friday.
- Temperatures will moderate as we go into the weekend.
- Ridging to our West leads to calm conditions and clear sky for Friday and most of Saturday
As of 21Z, we are in a split flow regime with the polar jet to the North and the Subtropical jet to the south. Temperatures are well below average, with lows in the high teens (average is in the upper 40s) to begin the forecast period. There is Northwest flow going on right now, which will switch to Southerly, bringing some warmer air. The WAA is pretty weak due to the pathetic low-level jet.
There is surface high pressure moving in starting on Thursday night. The radiational cooling that is associated with this high pressure will decrease temperatures due to subsidence and no clouds. Both models are conducive to mid-low level clouds, which will halt our cooling process. There is some uncertainty about timing, an earlier will keep us warmer, and later will keep us cooler.
The pattern moves to a positively tilted trough with the center of the trough over the desert southwest starting Friday night. The forecast area will receive some effects from the trough as we are located to the west, and carrying into Sunday. Saturday, the winds will be backing, which leads to the warmer air coming from the South. The trough will pull warm and moist air into the region, before a cold front Sunday night pushes through bringing our temperatures back below seasonal averages.
-Nightingale, Franciscus
- Campus Weather Forecast
Thursday Morning December 5th, 2024
Thursday: Mostly Sunny. Windy. Low: 25°F
Thursday Night: Mostly Clear. High: 16°F
Friday: Increasing Clouds. Low: 37°F
Friday Night: Partly Cloudy. High: 25°F
Saturday: Decreasing Clouds. Low: 50°F
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General Discussion:
Expect bitter cold temperatures today, with even colder feel-like temperatures due to northerly winds. During the evening hours, conditions will remain cold, but lack the winds that we will experience in the daytime hours. Be prepared for a warm-up and also calmer winds as we head into tomorrow and into the weekend.
– Bivens
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Forecasters: Bivens, Huebner, Malone
Date Issued: 12/05/2024 9:00 AM.
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
Frosty and windy conditions continue throughout our day today with wind speeds beginning to slow in the evening hours.
We will experience not only a warm-up going into tomorrow but also significantly calmer winds. aiding our feels-like-temperatures to remain manageable.
As of 12Z, a cold front which brought frigid-like conditions has completed its passage through Missouri and is now sitting over Mid-Arkansas. The northerly component to these winds had set feels-like-temperatures in the single digits for much of the early morning commute. These winds expedited frontal propagation, allowing for a strong temperature gradient to occur within just a short period of time. A low at all levels, currently stationed to our northeast, has a significant amount of associated vorticity which will remain concentrated in the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley region. This low will gradually make its way out of the CONUS region but not before advecting some moisture our way. Although present, this moisture is not necessarily notable, and we should expect relatively dry conditions during this entire forecast period. The 850mb map solidifies our observations regarding frigid conditions, showing a deeply rooted area of CAA over the Midwest.
Tonight we can expect temperatures to remain extremely cold, with lows in the teens. A mass of warm air, caused by a dominating high pressure system in the southern plains paired with southerly winds, will allow for a significant increase in temperatures going into tomorrow. These warmer conditions will endure into the weekend hours. As mentioned previously, winds will slow this evening, shifting from speeds of 15mph (gusts up to 25mph) to around 2-4mph. Worthy of attention for the next forecast shift is a low currently stationed over Baja California which will travel directly through the Four-Corners region over the course of the coming days. Currently, this low is not affecting our area but models show not only lobes of vorticity shooting into our area, but also some moisture associated with the system moving into our area late Saturday into Sunday.
-Bivens
Wednesday Afternoon December 4th, 2024
Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Windy. Low: 17°F
Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High: 25°F
Thursday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 16°F
Friday: Mostly Sunny. High: 40°F
Friday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 27°F
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General Discussion:
A significant drop in temperatures is expected through the evening hours tonight behind a cold front that is draped across northern Missouri. Cold temperatures will also be partnered with gusty winds through the evening and overnight hours. While cold air is returning it will be short lived and followed by a warmup to close out the forecast period.
– Stevens
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Forecasters: Stevens, Thee
Date Issued: 12/04/2024 5:00 PM.
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Frigid conditions arrive by the late night hours Wednesday behind a powerful cold front.
- High pressure results in a warm up by the end of the forecast period.
Current temperatures across the region have soared into the 50s across the state of Missouri. Many areas are seeing high temperatures climb into the lower 50s resulting in the snow pack across Missouri to melt away as seen on satellite imagery. While temperatures are above the seasonal average, a drastic change is on the way as we head into the overnight hours on Wednesday. Current visible satellite imagery depicts a line of clouds associated with a cold front stretching across southern Iowa and northern Missouri. As the cold front slides south into the region, clouds will enter central Missouri, but do not look to be very widespread leading to mostly clear sky conditions overnight. With a mostly clear sky and strong northerly winds ushering in CAA we will see temperatures plummet into the upper teens overnight on Wednesday.
CAA will knock back temperatures not only overnight, but through the day on Thursday as well. The seasonal average is in the upper 40s for this time of the year (Avg: High: 47). Temperatures on Thursday will struggle to warm thanks to the CAA leading to a high only in the mid 20s.
An upper-level low is the focal point of this cold weather that has been directly associated with the surface response to a cold front draped off of a mid-latitude cyclone centered over Canada. This low-pressure system is causing a tight pressure gradient resulting in strong winds throughout the day today and will continue to be strong through the evening behind the cold front as the low produces a expansive wind field across the middle third of the CONUS. Although these conditions remain in place through Thursday, surface high-pressure looks to take hold by the time Friday rolls around. WAA will take place throughout the day on Friday and will result in temperatures taking a major jump back into the upper 30s to near the 40 degree mark. These temperatures are something that should be watched closely over the next couple days by future forecast groups. Temperatures will warm considerably thanks to WAA and could increase higher than models are illistrating.
– Stevens