Wednesday, May 1st – Afternoon Forecast

Wednesday Evening: Cloudy. High: 63°F

Thursday: Potential Thunderstorm and Rainfall. Low: 82°F

Thursday Evening: Potential Thunderstorm and Rainfall. Low: 58°F

Friday: Partly Cloudy. High: 72°F

Friday Evening: Partly Cloudy. Low: 59°F


General Discussion:

Thursday will bring in an increased chance for potential thunderstorms. Rain is expected, as is a weak warm front that morning. Temperatures will fluctuate as unstable weather moves through.



Forecasters: Robinson, Cargill

Date Issued: 05/01/2024 4:00 PM

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages:

  1. The end of the week is expected to bring in another round of precipitation and a fluctuation of temperatures as a weak warm front moves through. 
  2. A potential for thunderstorms is likely to occur Thursday evening.

Both the NAM and GFS were used in this forecast. At 300mb, the atmospheric flow will transition from zonal to meridional over the CONUS beginning Thursday morning. The polar jet stream will reside over northern CONUS, just below a low-pressure system that is currently developing over the central northern CONUS. As it continues its development into Friday and Saturday, it will progress northward into Canada and atmospheric flow will become more zonal. Pockets of divergence will emerge ahead of this low-pressure system and over the forecast area Thursday 00z. The NAM was in disagreement with the presence of divergence that was depicted on the GFS model, which noted other pockets of divergence on Thursday 06Z and Thursday 21Z-Friday 09Z.

At 500mb, divergence is again associated with the low-pressure system to the north. It is in agreement with the upper-level divergence expected to move through the forecast area Thursday 00Z and Thursday 21Z-Friday 03Z. An abundance of moisture at 700mb overlaps with the upper-level lift, occurring Thursday 09Z-Friday 09Z. 

Moving closer to the surface, at 850mb, moisture is again abundant in the forecast area. It will remain into the early hours of Thursday. Specifically, the prevalence of moisture will be Thursday 18Z-Friday 15Z and Saturday 03Z to the end of the forecast period. Drawn in from the Gulf of Mexico by the LLJ, it will wrap into the low-pressure system to the north. The LLJ will reach maximum winds Thursday 00Z-09Z as it moves in a northeast direction over the south central CONUS. There will be a fluctuation of temperatures within the coming days as weak WAA and CAA moves through the forecast area. 

At the surface, the fluctuating temperatures are supported by a weak warm front Thursday 15Z, as indicated by the thickness and MSLP solenoids; the front will move just north of the forecast area. After the passage of the weak warm front Thursday 18Z, winds will return to a westerly flow. However, the forecast area will be affected by a potential thunderstorm that will move through Thursday evening. SHARPpy modeled soundings associated with that time period are heavily saturated throughout the atmosphere, PW averaging 1.5”, and K-Index values in the mid to upper 30s. These indices indicate a wealth of moisture that will help supply the ingredients needed for a thunderstorm.