CWF Monday, February 5th – Afternoon Forecast
Monday Night: Mostly Clear. Low – 30
Tuesday: Increasing Cloud Cover. High – 54
Tuesday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low – 37
Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy with Increasing Winds. High – 60
Wednesday Night: Cloudy and Windy. Low – 48
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Discussion:
A calm night is expected with temperatures cooling into the low 30s, but warmer conditions are the trend for the next couple of days. By Wednesday, stronger winds from the southwest are expected and high temperatures could reach the 60-degree mark.
-Jackson
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Forecasters: Sallot, Jackson, Beam
Date Issued: 02/05/2024 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- A ridge moving into Missouri over the next two days will result in settled weather persisting.
- A low-pressure system moving into the Dakotas will work with this ridge to bring strong southwesterly winds Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, resulting in well above average temperatures.
- Mid to upper-level clouds are expected by Wednesday with the help of this low-pressure system transferring saturated upper-level air.
Tonight, what little moisture is present will continue to dissipate, which will result in mostly clear sky conditions. With calm winds overnight and the presence of a mostly clear sky, temperatures are expected to fall into the low 30s as this is a favorable setup for radiational cooling.
Our focus then turns to a ridge traversing through Missouri over the first half of this week. The eastern part of this ridge moves overhead through Tuesday morning which calls for winds from the northwest. Moisture, lift, and omega are lacking throughout the morning hours so sunshine will be present. In the afternoon though, upper-level clouds start to creep in from a low-pressure system passing over Oregon. There are several factors that result in the high temperature reaching the mid 50s tomorrow. Afternoon clouds, along with northwesterly winds and the fact that we aren’t fully under the effects of the ridge will result in temperatures reaching only 10 degrees above average.
Tuesday night into Wednesday is when the axis of this ridge passes overhead which will shift winds into the southwest. Mid to upper-level clouds will also be present as the low-pressure mentioned earlier will propagate further to the east into the Montana and Dakota region. This low-pressure system will work in tandem with the ridge to bring stronger southwesterly winds into Missouri, assisting in the warmup process Wednesday. At this point we will be on the left side of the ridge which will provide warmer southwesterly air. This is why temperatures are expected to possibly reach the 60-degree mark on Wednesday. This is around 20 degrees above average for this time of year. With this abnormal heating, increasing lower-level clouds and strong southwesterly winds throughout Wednesday night into Thursday, overnight lows are only expected to cool into the high 40s.
Future forecasting shifts should be aware of strong winds Thursday because of the low-pressure system working with the ridge to amplify winds from the southwest. Also note the possibility of rain throughout Thursday because of a cold front associated with this low-pressure system.
-Jackson