CWF Monday, February 5th – Morning

Monday: Mostly Sunny. High – 53

Monday Night: Mostly Clear. Low – 30

Tuesday: Increasing Cloud Cover. High – 54

Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Low – 37

Wednesday: Cloudy. High – 56

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Discussion:

With a steep ridge over the region and a warm front building in Tuesday, we’re seeing a subtle warming trend with temperatures. However, cloud cover will still be increasing and aren’t as we approach the end of our forecast window. Temperatures will continue to be above average.

– Blodgett, Melton

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Forecasters: Blodgett, Melton

Date Issued: 02/05/2024 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

A blend of the NAM and the GFS were used to determine our forecast. Starting at the 250-mb level, Missouri is sitting under a steep, slow moving ridge. This ridge will continue to slowly level out over time with the jet streak simultaneously building into the region. The deep ridge will continue to stay a key feature across all of the mandatory levels.

Midway through Tuesday, there will be a warm front that builds into the region, bringing south to southwest winds, and warmer air. Meanwhile, the increasing cloud cover through Tuesday will limit the overnight lows on Tuesday, along with the high Wednesday. While the weather activity should stay relatively calm for the duration of the forecast period, winds are expected to be higher, with gusts up to 25 mph. A strengthening low pressure system to the northwest combined with a high pressure system to the southeast are causing these heightened wind speeds.

When discussing the highs and lows, the NAM and GFS showed a lot of disagreement for Tuesday night, with a near 20 degree difference. This is due to the NAM believing that the dry layer will be large enough to negate the effects of the cloud cover. We ultimately decided to lean more in favor of the GFS for our temperatures in our forecast window.

Later forecast shifts will have to pay attention to the potential incoming moisture on Thursday.

– Blodgett, Melton