CWF Wednesday, February 8th – Afternoon Forecast
Thursday Night: Clear with increased winds Low – 44
Friday: Clear with decreasing winds. High – 66
Friday Night: Low clouds and possible trace or rain Low – 44
Saturday: Increasing clouds, mostly cloudy High – 46
Saturday Night: Clear conditions Low-32
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Discussion:
For the weekend, temperatures will remain above average for this time of year. Winds will decrease throughout the day on Friday, which will make the day very pleasant. A moderate cold front is moving through from the northeast on early Saturday morning, lowering temperatures for our CWA for the remainder of Saturday..
-Counts
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Forecasters: Counts, Thomas
Date Issued: 02/08/2024 5:00PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- A cold front will move from the NW at 03Z Saturday, dropping temperatures Saturday to more seasonable conditions, a possible trace if rain will be associated with this rain, expecting little to no rain.
The sub polar jet is prevalent over a wide spread of the CONUS. Currently, a large jet streak is overhead at 300mb ranging from Missouri to Baja California. By Friday night this jet streak will be overhead with divergence aloft. By Saturday at 15Z this jet streak will be exiting to the East as a deep trough begins to develop over California with a prevalent positive tilt to this system.
At 500mb, to help with the cold front a band of circulation will help push this front through our region. At 18z Friday, a small shortwave will help amplify a low pressure system that will also help aid this cold front moving through our region around 03Z early Saturday morning. Pockets of circulation will move through the southeast region at 18Z Saturday. More rain and a stronger system will remain in the south region for Saturday. For the remaining of our forecast period, our region will be on the eastern periphery of positively tilted long wave trough, which will place us in deep southerly flow.
For 700 and 850 mb, they both indicate there is moisture moving in around 00Z Friday night with the cold front that is pushing through. Looking at these levels along with soundings there is not much indication that there will be much rain at the surface for early Saturday morning. On the surface observation, the NAM indicates more moisture than the GFS. If anything falls it will be a trace and will leave the CWA with mostly cloudy sky conditions. At the surface, a fairly large low pressure system will be lingering in our region that is helping the cold front.
– Counts