Friday, February 9, 2024 — Morning Forecast
Friday: Increasing clouds. High: 66
Friday Night: Cloudy. Low: 40
Saturday: Continuing cloud cover. High: 46
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 32
Sunday: Overcast. High: 45
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Discussion:
Current surface analysis shows our forecast area sandwiched in between a cold front to our northwest and a stationary front to our southeast. Today’s high will be the last significantly warm day of the week with a high temperature in the 60s. Cloud cover will increase throughout today and remain present over the weekend, with temperatures dropping considerably overnight tonight. Temperatures will remain above average throughout the weekend, however, with highs in the mid-40s Saturday and Sunday.
-Casserly
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Forecasters: Casserly, Warden
Date Issued: 02/09/2024 10:00AM CST
Technical Discussion:
At 300mb, a strong jet streak is sailing across southern Missouri ahead of a deepening trough to our far west. As this trough continues to deepen over the weekend, a low at the base of the trough will struggle to become a cutoff low and bring more active weather after the end of our forecast period. There is no significant vorticity at 500mb that passes over Missouri through the weekend, though Sunday night a band moves over the state, so future forecasters should keep an eye on the track of this low and possible active weather.
In terms of moisture, central Missouri will remain very dry over the entire weekend, with relief in sight by Sunday night. However, with no precipitation and low dew points in the 30s and 40s, there is an elevated fire risk for most of the state this weekend. Westerly winds a the surface will transition to north-northeast with the passage of the cold front to our north tonight, and clouds will be prevalent the entire weekend. The GFS and NAM model soundings both indicated cloud cover, though the NAM favored much more moist conditions in the upper atmosphere. We used both models for our forecast despite the moisture disagreement because the upper air models and temperatures reached a good consensus on timing and general placement, with the exception of the low track’s uncertainty at the end of the weekend. Temperatures will drop significantly tonight, with highs in the mid-60s today to mid-40s tomorrow and Sunday. The 540 line lingers over northern Missouri and begins to dip south with the arrival of the impending low, indicating a colder start to next week.
-Casserly