Friday, February 9, 2024 — Afternoon Forecast
Friday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 37
Saturday: Partly Cloudy. High: 49
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 32
Sunday: Partly Cloudy. High: 47
Sunday: Increasing Clouds. Low: 31
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Discussion:
A cold front will moving through our area tonight as winds will be shifting from southwest to northwest, bringing temperatures closer to average for this time of the year (avg. high 43). Partly cloudy sky conditions will be the story for much of the weekend, except for Sunday as there will be lots of sunshine for your Chiefs tailgate!
-Ebert
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Forecasters: Ebert, Collier
Date Issued: 02/09/2024 5:00PM CST
Technical Discussion:
The 18Z GFS and 18Z NAM were utilized for this forecast as both models had good agreement on synoptic-scale features. The main focus for this weekend is the return of average temperatures thanks to a cold front that is moving through the central part of Missouri right now.
At 300mb, a strong jet streak stretching from Nevada to Kentucky is crossing right over Missouri as the southwesterly flow aloft has allowed for temperatures to climb into the 60s yesterday and today. At the surface, we have been tracking a strong area of low pressure moving across the Great Lakes region which has dragged the aforementioned cold front across central Missouri. As this cold front moves to the southeast, winds will shift from west to north. This dry, cold air will push the moisture to the south and keep all rain chances tonight across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Some mid level cloud cover will be likely tonight as our dominant flow aloft is still out of the west-southwest, keeping overnight lows in the mid 30s.
For Saturday, more mid level clouds will be brought to much of the central CONUS, with light northerly winds at the surface, so temperatures will be closer to average temperatures for this time of year (avg. high 43). Saturday night, dry air continues to dominate closer to the surface, so clouds will continue to be found at the mid level and winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph. However, dominant southwest flow aloft should help keep low temperatures a few degrees above our average low (avg. low 25).
On Sunday, we will begin to watch a positively titled trough dig across the southwest CONUS and help guide the development of a surface low across the southern Great Plains throughout Sunday afternoon. Ahead of the low, upper level cirrus clouds will enter our region late Sunday. Similar to Saturday, winds at the surface will be from the north at 5-10 mph, so afternoon high temperatures should be in the mid 40s. As an area of low pressure continues to mature across eastern Texas, mid level stratus will build in over our region with partly cloudy sky conditions forecasted heading into Monday morning.
Future forecast shifts should monitor the progression and track of this system to determine how much cold air and moisture will be in place by the time it arrives Sunday night into Monday. Currently, confidence is low for accumulating snow on Monday as ground temperatures will likely be well above the freezing mark.
-Ebert