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Friday Night: Clouds clearing. Low: 16°F
Saturday: Mostly Sunny. 34°F
Saturday Night: Clear. 24°F
Sunday: Sunny. 50°F
Sunday Night: Clear. 30°F
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General Discussion:
Low temperatures tonight will help accumulated snow stick around, but not for long. A high pressure system moving into the area will bring back the sunshine and warmer temperatures we saw earlier in the month, with the warming trend predicted to continue into next week.
-Collier
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Forecasters: Collier, Ebert, McCormack
Date Issued: 2/16/2024 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- The low temperature tonight will be very cold, leading to the possibility of dangerous road conditions.
- Cold air advecting into the area will keep Saturday’s high cooler than the seasonal average of 42 degrees.
- A high pressure center following the recent system will work to warm temperatures back up to above seasonal averages.
1 to 3 inches of snow have accumulated over the forecast region following the passage of a shortwave earlier in the day. The GFS and NAM seem to be in good agreement that any moisture lingering around will be gone by early Saturday morning, so radiational cooling and strong cold air advection will cause the overnight low to plummet to around 16 degrees (below the average temperature of 29 degrees on this date). These frigid temperatures may lead to icy road conditions, as any snowfall that melted could refreeze onto the ground.
A coupling pattern in the jet stream is predicted to take place Saturday and Sunday, but the confluence of the polar and subtropical jets will fall to our east and therefore will not affect this forecast. We will instead be sitting under the ridge behind the diving polar jet, which will contribute to clear and sunny conditions throughout the weekend. Despite the sunshine, Saturday’s high will be in the low-to-mid 30s, as continued northerly flow will keep advecting cold air into the area.
Forecast soundings, model maps, and the NBM are all currently in good agreement that Saturday and Sunday will remain quite dry, so we elected to forecast low-to-mid 20s for the Saturday low. There is minor shortwave that appears to be passing south of us over Arkansas on Sunday morning with some associated moisture, but it is fairly weak and is not forecasted to reach us at this time. By Sunday the northerly winds will have shifted to the west, and then to the south by the late evening as the high pressure center associated with the upper-level ridge passes over the region. The shifting pattern will bring Sunday’s high up to around 50 degrees (above the climatological average of 42 degrees), and the low temperature will settle around 30 degrees.
Future shifts should look forward to a continued warming trend, as well as a low pressure system coming off of the Rockies and approaching the forecast area later in the day.
-Collier