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Friday: Snowy then Cloudy. High: 34°F
Friday Night: Clouds Depart. Low: 16°F
Saturday: Mostly Sunny. 34°F
Saturday Night: Clear. 26°F
Sunday: Sunny. 50°F
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General Discussion:
Right now, a wintry mix is falling, though as the day progresses snow will take over. Snowfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected, with snow stopping around 3pm this afternoon. Clouds clear away tonight leaving a very clear but cold start to the weekend with the coldest temperatures since mid-January. The clouds stay away all weekend, and temperatures warm back up to the low 50s for Sunday afternoon.
-Warden
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Forecasters: Warden, Casserly, Shaw
Date Issued: 2/16/2024 10:00 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- A winter weather advisory is in effect for the area until 3pm, snowfall amounts of 1-2 inches are expected as the wintry mix becomes purely snow.
- Cold temperatures make a return today and tomorrow, with highs in the mid-to-low 30s and a low tonight in the upper teens.
- Above average temperatures make a return Sunday. (Avg. High 45)
The NAM was primarily used for this forecast, as it had a better handle on the warm nose this morning and as a result correctly predicted sleet rather than snow. The main focus of this forecast period is on the current wintry mix and the ensuing cold spell that follows.
At 300MB, the polar jet is above and with it a shortwave. Combined with plenty of vorticity at 500MB and lift at 700MB, as well as moisture throughout the lower-levels, we have a perfect set-up for winter weather. That is exactly the case today as sleet turning into snow is currently moving through the area. Snowfall totals are expected around 1-2 inches, with the snow stopping around 3pm, though with ground temperatures being above freezing (37°F) accumulation may be limited. This system has a narrow snow band, that depending on location could cause local snowfall amounts above the range, however the snow band is not tracking towards campus. If the track were to change, snowfall rates of 1in/hour are possible, which would result in higher accumulation.
Highs today are expected around 34°F, well below average. By this evening, the clouds begin to move away and the sky will be mostly clear by Saturday morning.Unfortunately, the cold stays for tomorrow with lows in the upper teens tonight. Saturday remains mostly sunny all day, but don’t expect to be outside as the highs still remain in the low 30s. Winds will likely be around 10 mph, making a cool day even colder. Low Saturday night is expected in the mid 20s.
A weak low moves into the area Sunday, though it brings nothing with it. The sky will remain clear as a subsidence pattern shows up on the forecast soundings. Temperatures begin to climb back into the 50s Sunday afternoon and the clouds continue to stay away.
Future forecasters should continue to monitor the low as there is a chance it could develop into something of note. Another low tracks towards the area early next week that appears to pack more of a punch. An as seems to be a common trend this February, future forecasters should also continue to monitor the above average temperatures expected into next week.
-Warden