Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 42°F


Wednesday: Increasing Clouds. High: 69°F

Wednesday Night: Showers Possible. Low: 50°F

Thursday: Showers Possible. High: 59°F

Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy. 37°F

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General Discussion:

Temperatures remain well above seasonal averages throughout the remainder of the week. Rain becomes possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Along with the rain chances, cloud cover will stick around throughout Thursday.

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Forecasters: Simmons, Thee, Yost

Date Issued: 2/20/2024 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

Key messages: 

Temperatures remain well above seasonal averages throughout the forecast period(20 degrees above average)

A chance for rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

The Nam and GFS were used in consensus for this forecast as they both accurately forecasts a high-pressure system to the southeast of the CWA.

Current visible satellite imagery demonstrates clear and sunny sky conditions throughout most of the central CONUS as a shortwave moves out of the region. With the shortwave moving to the east, a well pronounced upper-level ridge will begin to build in over the region. With low-pressure to the west and high-pressure to the southeast, a tight pressure gradient will allow for ample return flow out of the south. This will allow for temperatures to reach around 20 degrees above the seasonal average(Avg. High 47) on Wednesday.

The ridge will begin to flatten out Wednesday evening as a shortwave moves into the region from the Central Plains. A low-pressure will form off of the lee side of the Rockies and will be associated with the shortwave. At 500 MB, a vort max will hover to the east of the shortwave alongside pockets of lower-level moisture early Thursday morning and will allow for likely chances(>70%) of measurable precipitation. Storms remains unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibilities. HREF ensemble mean surface-based CAPE values of 100-200 J/kg will be evident in the early hours of Thursday morning. If convection does occur it will most likely be elevated, with chances of small hail possible. As the shortwave propagates to the east, the low-pressure will move directly over the northern portion of the state. A weak cold front draped off of the low will quickly dry out and cool off the atmosphere late Thursday morning. As a result, it will be noticeably cooler on Thursday compared to Wednesday, but will still remain 10-15 degrees above the seasonal average(Avg. High 47).

-Thee, Simmons