Wednesday Night: Scattered clouds. Low: 50°F

Thursday: Overcast. Showers Possible. High: 59°F

Thursday Night: Breaking up of Clouds. Low: 37°F

Friday: Clear. High: 55°F

Friday Night: Increasing, Scattered Clouds. Low: 32°F

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General Discussion:

We are two weeks out to the half-point of the semester! For the rest of this week, expect cool to chilly temperatures with a possibility of light showers tomorrow. Otherwise, a lot of cloudy weather is in Mizzou‘s future, we can only expect a clear on Friday into the weekend. Finish week 6 strong, Tigers!

-Cargill

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Forecasters: Cargill

Date Issued: 2/21/2024 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

For this forecast, the NAM and GFS forecasting models will be utilized. A weak trough is modeled to dissipate as it exits the central CONUS, with weak jet streaks associated with it. As it moves out, a low-pressure system stationed over southeast Canada will begin to dig a positively-tilted trough over the central CONUS. This feature will shift mid-Missouri‘s winds to the northeast, likely causing colder temperatures. Little to no divergence is forecasted by either model and, as a result, no convergence at the surface can be expected.

The tail end of the weakening trough is modeled to bring with it multiple instances of vorticity maximums and strong smoothed differential vorticity advection at 500mb. This is modeled to arrive early Thursday. The very same positively-tilted trough observed at 300mb can be viewed at 500mb as well. It digs into the central CONUS in a similar fashion, and, for future note, this behavior is modeled at every level down to the surface.

Throughout the forecast period, very little moisture is modeled at 700mb. However, there is interesting behavior of the modeled cold air advection. On Thursday at 18z, strong CAA is modeled to move through mid-Missouri in a straight line, meaning that a FROPA is likely on Thursday. 800mb models this advection in a similar way. Really, the only difference between these two levels is that 800mb is modeled to be much more moist, especially around Thursday 18z.

At the surface, there are many solenoids modeled in and around Missouri. This is likely driving the significant advection mentioned in the previous paragraph. Despite the significant moisture, not a lot of accumulated precipitation is modeled around 18z on Thursday. SREF & GEFS plumes model about 0.1″ of rain on Thursday, which is in agreement with the shallow moist layer on the modeled sounding for this time. Because of all of this, light showers or drizzle can be expected tomorrow afternoon. Future forecasters should monitor the 540 line as it is modeled to be pushing into Missouri and into the southern United States as the forecast period ends. They should also watch the vorticity being brought into the central CONUS by the southeast Canadian low-pressure system.

-Cargill