Friday: Sunny. High: 60 F

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 32 F

Saturday: Few clouds. High: 51 F

Saturday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 41 F

Sunday: Sunny. High: 69 F

=============================================================================

General Discussion:

Friday will start our weekend off warm with temperatures rising above average. A sunny sky with windy conditions will bring an elevated fire risk to Missouri, and combined with low moisture today fuels will easily ignite. Temperatures will cool tonight to more seasonal averages, and few clouds will pass by, but the weather will be calm. By midday Saturday we are expected to reach the 50s, and by Sunday strong warm air advection will bring temperatures to nearly 70 degrees to start the last week of February.

– Casserly

=============================================================================

Forecasters: Casserly, Warden, Shaw

Date: 2/23/2024 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

Key messages:

• A clear sky and breezy conditions bring an elevated fire risk to Missouri today combined with low moisture values across the state.
• Today will be warmer than average (avg 47F), then drop back to more seasonal temperatures tomorrow with the passage of a cold front. Sunday will warm right back up as strong warm air advection moves into Missouri.
• Chances for active weather remain at the beginning of the work week.

Current models depict a strong subtropical jet to our south, and a large positively tilted trough north of us into Canada. This trough remains through the weekend as it slowly spins off to our east. A small ridge will develop and pass over Missouri by Saturday 21Z, bringing mild conditions and warming temperatures into Sunday. Along with the passage of this upper-level ridge, winds at the surface will transition from the west-northwesterly flow we’ve been experiencing to southerly winds overnight Saturday. Today is expected to be breezy, so with low moisture values this presents the threat of an elevated fire risk.

Looking at relative humidity values at 700 and 800mb, any potent moisture will develop farther to our east and south. A swath of moisture will sweep down from the north through Saturday with the passage of a cold front, bringing some cloudiness into tomorrow morning. Tonight, a pocket of higher RH values develops over southeastern Missouri at 850mb, but continues east and develops over Illinois before reaching the east coast. Over central Missouri, it looks like we will not see any rain before the increasing storm chances on Tuesday, however clouds are expected tonight with that passing moisture.

On Sunday, well-defined solenoids form over the Midwest and we will see plenty of insolation to increase our already-warming temperatures. Averages for this time of year are about 48F, and temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 60s, threatening the record high of 76F that was set in 1981. With southerly winds for the end of the weekend combined with our solenoids, it is expected that plenty of warm air will be present for an unusual end to February.

-Casserly