=============================================================================
Monday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 52°F
Tuesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 84°F
Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low Chance for Snow. Low: 24°F
Wednesday: Sunny. High 39°F
Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 21°F
=============================================================================
General Discussion:
Record high temperatures in the 80’s are forecast before a strong cold front comes through Tuesday night. This cold front will end up dropping temperatures nearly 50-60 degrees to the low 20’s by Wednesday morning. Light snow is possible after this cold front passes through.
–Beam
=============================================================================
Forecasters: Beam, Jackson, Sallot
Date Issued: 2/26/2024 6:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Record Shattering Warmth/Fire Potential Tuesday
- Severe Weather Potential Tuesday
- Cold Front and snow potential Tuesday night into Wednesday
The GFS and NAM were used in conjunction for this forecast as they both depict a pretty accurate current synoptic setup; however, the GFS will be relied on more as the NAM tends to have a moisture bias, which will come into play for the severe risk. Zonal flow will continue through at least midday Tuesday before we start feeling the effects from an incoming trough from the Pacific Northwest. This trough and attendant cold front will be responsible for a diversity of weather conditions throughout the forecast period; thus, this AFD is formatted to address each specific hazard.
Record Warmth and Fire Weather Potential:
The daily record for Columbia today has been broken at 79 degrees (original record 77). Tuesday (tomorrow) could be similar, but the all-time February record high is in jeopardy. Zonal flow will continue through Tuesday, and strong warm air advection will contribute to the climb of temperatures. Forecast models are hinting that temperatures will reach the low to mid 80’s.
With zonal flow currently in place and relative humidity lacking throughout the majority of the atmosphere today and tomorrow, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for all of Central Missouri until 7PM Tuesday. Due to the current and forecasted moisture content, the surface winds gusting to near 30mph, the Haines Index reaching 5 to 6 at times and the fact that so far in the month of February, Columbia has only picked up 0.2 inches of precipitation, any fire that starts has the potential to rapidly spread out of control.
Severe Weather Potential:
First off, the trough will eject east of the Rockies around 00z Wednesday prompting the Storm Prediction Center to issue a marginal severe weather risk for Central Missouri. There is sufficient instability and wind shear to support severe thunderstorms across Central Missouri; however, storms will not fire due to the lack of low level moisture. That moisture will not be as limited further to the east in parts of Illinois and Indiana, where the severe weather seems most likely.
Cold Front/Snow Potential:
A Cold Front will sweep through Missouri late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. This cold front has a lot of similarities to the Great Blue Norther of 1911, where temperatures plummeted by more than 60-70 degrees across the Midwest including Missouri. This cold front might not be as intense, but it will be a cold slap in the face when you wake up Wednesday morning as temperatures will dip into the low 20’s thanks to very strong cold air advection.
With the presence of positive vorticity advection, good low level moisture, and sufficient lift after the cold front passes through, snowflakes could occur. Model soundings from multiple models also hint toward snow falling from 08-10z Wednesday. However, due to warm soil temperatures (~60 degrees), no measurable accumulation is expected, but there may be a light dusting on elevated surfaces.
Overall, a wild ride of weather is forecast over the next few days. Future forecast shifts need to monitor each of these ongoing threats.
-Beam