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Friday: Decreasing Clouds. High: 52°F
Friday Night: Mostly Clear. Low 35°F
Saturday: Clear, increasing winds. High: 70°F
Saturday night: Clear, breezy. Low: 52°F
Sunday: Sunny, windy. High: 79°F
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General Discussion:
The drizzly conditions will begin to move out of the area this morning and we will stay dry the rest of the weekend. Temperatures get back to unseasonably warm levels this weekend with highs in the low 70s on Saturday and pushing 80 on Sunday. Saturday afternoon through the end of the weekend will also be very breezy, with wind gusts potentially reaching 40 mph on Sunday. The first weekend of meteorological spring is certainly living up to the name.
-Warden
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Forecasters: Warden, Casserly
Date Issued: 3/01/2024 10:00 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Drizzle leaves the area Friday, leaving the weekend dry.
- Warm temperatures make a return this weekend, with highs around 70 on Saturday and near 80 on Sunday.
- Winds increase starting Saturday afternoon, with sustained winds over 20mph and gusts potentially reaching 40mph on Sunday.
The GFS was primarily used for this forecast as the NAM did not show as much mixing through the weekend and was significantly colder than the GFS and ensembles. Mixing plays a crucial role in the temperature profile Sunday due to the high winds.
At 300mb, a shortwave is moving through the area, bringing with it vorticity at 500mb. This combined with plenty of moisture through the low levels is what caused the rain seen early Friday morning and the lingering drizzle that has followed. That precipitation moves away with the shortwave Friday afternoon, leaving the upper level flow relatively unremarkable for the rest of the weekend. Friday afternoon and night will see temperatures close to average (Avg. High 50F, Avg. Low 31F) for this time of year with highs in the low 50s and lows in the low to mid 30s.
Southwesterly flow aloft brings warm and dry Southwest desert air. This means Saturday will be clear, with winds increasing out of the South-Southwest all day at the surface, reaching above 15mph. This will bring with it plenty of warm air advection, bringing our highs into the low 70s. Saturday night does not see any of the winds subside; in fact, the winds will continues to increase if anything. As a result, continued warm air advection keeps us warm with lows in the mid 50s.
Sunday brings with it everything seen on Saturday, but to another level. Winds will be sustained above 20 mph for much of the day, with gusts reaching up to 40 mph, potentially warranting a wind advisory. With the continued Southerly winds and warm 850mb temperatures, mixing could cause our temperatures to reach into the upper 70s or low 80s. A low level jet is also present at 850mb, but due to a lack of moisture will not produce any precipitation, though it does help our winds.
Future forecasters should continue to monitor the warm temperatures, as well as a low that appears to be coming through the area on Monday night.
-Warden