Monday, March 4th – Morning Forecast

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Monday: Increasing clouds, overcast by afternoon. High: 75°F

Monday Night: Overcast. Low 48°F

Tuesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 57°F

Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 41°F

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 60°F

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General Discussion:

Showers will make a return as early as 6 pm on Monday and will continue through the overnight hours. After the showers have passed by, our high temperatures will be limited by cloud cover and northerly winds. A subtle warming trend will continue from Tuesday into Wednesday bringing our high temperatures back into the 60s.

-Blodgett, Counts

=============================================================================Forecasters: Blodgett, Counts

Date Issued: 3/04/2024 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages:

1. Rain is expected to begin at 6 PM tonight.
2. Rain will continue through the overnight hours Monday and carry into the morning hours Tuesday.
3. A cold front will be passing through during the showers which will inhibit our high temperatures for the coming days.

A blend of the GFS and NAM was used to produce this forecast. Due to storm placement and timing, we have decided to take a slight bias towards the NAM. Starting with the hemispheric plot, most of the CONUS is under a shallow longwave trough. Looking at the 250 mb map, Missouri is in between the polar and the subtropical jet. Due to the longwave trough we are under, we also stay in a meridional flow pattern throughout our forecast window with our winds being influenced by a powerful low pressure system in southwestern Canada.

Moving down to 500 mb, there is vorticity that comes through late Monday going into Tuesday, this leads me to believe there are some upper level clouds present in this time frame. The NAM is picking up on some moisture at 700 mb along with some weaker omega values before the moisture comes in. This is indicating that there is some lift occurring at this height and this correlates with the observed warm air advection at this height at the same time stamps.

At 850 mb, there is an abundance of moisture being picked up by the GFS and the NAM around the afternoon hours of Monday which leads me to believe that there are low level clouds present at this time. Additionally, there is a low level jet pushing through Missouri moving to the northeast. Moisture values remain present throughout most of the forecast window which indicates low level cloud cover remaining a key feature in the coming days.

At the surface, we are picking up on precipitation starting around the early evening hours Monday. A slow moving cold front will be pushing the precipitation through the forecast area overnight Monday. Due to slow speeds of the cold front, the rain will be expected to remain until sunrise Tuesday. After the rain passes, the northerly wind component will be inhibiting our temperatures from reaching the highs we’ve been seeing as of recently. However, a slow warming trend will bring our temperatures up for the rest of our period as the wind component shifts to a more westerly flow.

Future forecast shifts should pay attention to an incoming low pressure system from the west that is bringing instability and more potential storms.

-Blodgett, Counts