Wednesday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 45°F
Thursday: Rain. High: 54°F
Thursday Night: Rain. Low: 51°F
Friday: Rain Likely. High: 51°F
Friday Night: Cloudy. High: 36°F
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General Discussion:
As more active weather moves in the forecast area, temperatures will remain steady, but there will be a shift in weather conditions as we experience more precipitation nearing the weekend. Thursday evening will also bring in stronger winds that reach up to 20 mph.
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Forecasters: Robinson, Cargill
Date Issued: 3/06/2024 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages
- A strengthening low-pressure system will move into the forecast area, bringing with it precipitation Thursday and Friday.
- Temperatures will remain steady, but stronger winds at the surface will occur on Thursday evening.
Both the GFS and NAM were used in this forecast. At 300mb, the jet stream transitions from a zonal to meridional flow at approximately Thursday 09Z. The subtropical jet stream remains in the southern CONUS, with upper-level divergence most prevalent on Thursday 15Z-21Z. A positively-tilted trough strengthens over the Four Corners region with meridional flow, and the jet streak associated with the subtropical jet is parallel to the leading edge of the trough where there is PVA.
At 500mb, vorticity strengthens and remains prevalent for the forecast area from Thursday 18Z – Saturday 12Z. It moves ahead of the low-pressure system, which is associated with the trough mentioned above. The well-defined circulation is attributed to its location in an area of PVA, and the tightening pressure gradients nearing the arrival of the low-pressure system.
Moving closer to the surface, at 700mb, moisture and lift are continuously displayed on both maps. From Thursday 15Z till the end of the forecast, relative humidity moves northeast in tangent with lift analyzed at 500mb. The most significant combination of moisture and lift occurs on Friday 00Z, and begins dissipating afterwards till Saturday 09Z. At this level, on Saturday 00Z, a well-defined high-pressure system resides over the West Coast and a low-pressure system over the East Coast. Heading into the weekend, future forecasters should look for CAA that will accompany the high-pressure system moving east.
At 850mb, moisture is again prevalent from Thursday 12Z – Friday 15Z. Similarly, the LLJ moves into the forecast area from Thursday 21Z – Friday 6Z. Coming in from the Gulf of Mexico, it will help shift the winds from the southeast to the southwest. Wind speeds following the LLJ and the wind shift are expected to reach up to 40 kts, lasting from Friday 06Z-18Z. By Saturday 06Z, winds will shift northeast as high-pressure sets in.
At the surface, pressure and temperature gradients move parallel to each other with the arrival of the trough, signaling weak WAA from Friday 00Z through the end of the forecast. However, precipitation at the surface will still be expected. Rain will remain in the forecast area from Thursday morning through Friday evening, with estimated totals near 1.5”.
-Robinson