Thursday Night: Rain. Low: 53°F
Friday: Light Rain. High: 53°F
Friday Night: Cloudy. Low: 36°F
Saturday: Mostly Sunny. High: 47°F
Saturday Night: Clear. High: 29°F
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General Discussion:
Happy Thursday Tigers! It looks to be rainy as we head into tonight and into Friday night. Clearing takes place on Saturday, with temperatures remaining cooler as a cold front passes through the region. The weather then after Saturday looks cool and sunny until the end of the forecast period.
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Forecasters: Thomas, Melton, Peine
Date Issued: 3/7/2024 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Precipitation will occur over the forecast area until Friday afternoon.
- There is an 80% chance of an inch or more of rain between now and Friday afternoon.
Both the NAM and GFS were used for this forecast. They provide similar predictions for the entirety of the forecast period.
The forecast period begins with the forecast area being under the back side of an upper-level ridge (300 and 500 mb). There will be little change in the upper levels progressing into Friday, and the forecast area will experience circulation for the entire day, contributing to higher amounts of lift. The lower levels (700 and 850 mb) are highly saturated on Thursday evening and Friday. This combined with the circulation and projected lift during this time suggests continuous rain throughout tonight until Friday afternoon.
On Saturday, a positively tilted trough moves through the Midwest region, and its axis reaches the forecast area at 15z. Circulation remains in the area until 21z on Saturday. Upper-level moisture clears out in the morning, and the lower levels do the same by Saturday evening. Because of this moisture clearing throughout the day, Saturday is expected to transition from partly cloudy to mostly sunny as the day progresses. Clear sky conditions are expected by Saturday night going into Sunday.
After the passage of the trough through the forecast area, wind directions will maintain a northwesterly direction. This cooler air consistently flowing into the forecast area will cause temperatures to lower closer to seasonal averages (avg. high 54, avg. low 33). Low temperatures will dip back below freezing by Saturday night.
-Melton