Monday: Sunny. High: 68°F
Monday Night: Clear. Low 46°F
Tuesday: Increasing clouds. High: 71°F
Tuesday Night: Potential storms (40%) Low: 51°F
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High: 72°F
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General Discussion:
Another warming trend this week as temperatures will be well above average for this forecast period. Only concern for some potential rain is on late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Could see potential storms for Wednesday night but nothing concerning severe weather wise.
-Blodgett, Counts
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Forecasters: Blodgett, Counts
Date Issued: 3/04/2024 10:00 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
Due to significant difference on both GFS and NAM, we decided to take guidance from the GFS. At 300mb the sub tropical jet is to our east, leaving our region with a zonal flow until 00Z Tuesday where this is a more of a meridional flow creating a shortwave trough. There is not a jet stream overhead to indicate any assistance on these possible storms for late Tuesday evening.
Moving down to 500 mb, there is nothing to concerning until the time of our prediction of storms for Tuesday evening. The shortwave trough at 03z is very prevalent. Vorticity in association with the shortwave may be a contributing factor in the possible storms Tuesday, but without the jet stream’s help this won’t have much divergence aloft to help this system.
At 700 and 850 mb , it is dry until 03Z Wednesday, late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. There is not much moisture to account for at both of these levels and we can also see this on the soundings. Not having a lot of potential for moisture at these upper levels is why we are thinking there won’t be much rain produced as this system moves through. At 850mb, the LLJ is helping push this potential storms beginning at 21Z Tuesday and lasting through around 06Z Wednesday morning. This will also act as a primary driver for our strong winds and warm but dry surface.
At the surface, we stay under a ridge until the low from Colorado pushes its way through beginning around 21Z Tuesday night. Also at this time there is also solenoids indicating warm air advection, but with previous dry wind from the southwest and not a lot of moisture in the upper levels.
There is a lot of potential from the atmospheric profile that these could be more severe, but without the saturation and upper level forcing this is why we are indicating less severe storms. Thus, we are forecasting a 40% chance potential for storms at 03z Wednesday.
Future forecasters should watch for the severe weather indicators on Wednesday into Thursday. A larger low pressure system is moving through our region and maybe a driver for a more significant severe weather episode.
-Counts