Friday, March 15th – Morning Forecast

Friday: Clouds Depart. High: 61°F

Friday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 42°F

Saturday: Mostly Sunny. High: 67°F

Saturday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 38°F

Sunday: Mostly Sunny. High: 50°F

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General Discussion:

Uneventful weather makes its return to the area this weekend, which is a welcome change from the last two days. Clouds depart the area today and generally stay away apart from a few on Saturday night that will come with a cold front. Temperatures will be above average Friday and Saturday (Avg. High 56°F), with highs in the low 60s and mid 60s respectively. The aforementioned cold front will drop Sunday to below average, with a high around 50. St. Patrick’s Day will be a bit chilly, but not too cold to celebrate!

-Warden

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Forecasters: Warden, Casserly

Date Issued: 3/15/2024 10:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages:

1. Dry, calmer weather makes its return to the area this weekend.

2. Above average temperatures on Friday and Saturday.

3. A cold front passes through attached to a shortwave trough on Saturday night, leading to a chillier St. Patrick’s Day on Sunday.

Both the NAM and GFS were used for this forecast, as the models generally agreed through the weekend.

At 250MB, the jet stream is located off to our east. Another jet will build in on Saturday, though the max will be located to our east as well. An upper-level shortwave will pass through Sunday afternoon, though its effects will be felt before then.

On Friday, the remnants of Thursday’s system leave the area and take the cloud cover with them, leaving a mostly sunny afternoon as high pressure builds in. Temperatures will be in the low 60s as diabatic heating gives a nice boost to temperatures. Friday night is a similar story, with a low in the low 40s. A stray cloud may linger overhead but they will be few and far between as there is little moisture in the atmosphere at any level.

Saturday brings more of the same, however a west-southwesterly wind brings some warm air advection and allows temperatures to reach the mid to upper 60s. Clouds remain away from the area for the daytime hours. In the late evening, a cold front passes through the area a little before midnight. This is the tail end of a cold front originating north of the Great Lakes and as such brings no notable weather other than the temperature drop and some cloud cover due to the lack of a depth of moisture. The low on Saturday night will drop to the upper 30s as mass cold air advection washes across the area.

For St. Patrick’s Day on Sunday, temperatures remain colder, and the cold air advection remains very clear. Well defined solenoids are across all of Missouri and Iowa for most of Sunday day. High temperatures will be in the low 50s and upper 40s. On the bright side, the clouds leave in the morning as the cold front moves away leaving a mostly sunny afternoon for any St. Patrick’s Day festivities.

Future forecasters should be aware of an upper level trough and an associated vorticity band passing through Sunday night into Monday morning, while the system appears to lack moisture, it may develop.

-Warden