Wednesday, March 20th – Afternoon Forecast
Wednesday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 35°F
Thursday: Scattered Clouds. High: 51°F
Thursday Night: Decreasing Clouds. 41°F
Friday: Increasing Clouds. 66°F
Friday Night: Low Clouds. 30°F
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General Discussion:
The rest of the working week will see settled weather conditions for Columbia, MO. On Friday, however, temperatures will drop as a cold front moves through the area. Cloud coverage during this forecast period will fluctuate.
-Robinson
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Forecasters: Cargill, Chirpich, Robinson
Date Issued: 3/20/2024 4:30 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Settled weather conditions will be prevalent for the latter half of the week.
- A cold front will move into the forecast area on Friday 21Z, leading to a drop in temperatures.
Both the GFS and NAM were used in this forecast. At 300 mb, the polar jet stream over the Great Lakes region becomes more zonal on Friday 06Z, helping to increase stability over the Great Plains. Further south, a low-pressure system will develop above the subtropical jet, and move over the southeast CONUS on Friday. As for the forecast area, however, these two jet streams will not contribute to any active weather heading into the weekend.
At 500 mb, a lack of vorticity is prevalent in the forecast area. While minimal circulation will occur on Saturday 15Z, it will not lead to unstable weather conditions. This is supported by data provided at 700 mb, showing a lack of moisture over Columbia, Missouri on Friday 21Z. At this same time period, a strong band of CAA will move over the forecast area, and contribute to a drop in temperatures moving into the weekend.
Closer to the surface, at 850 mb, moisture will be present Thursday 09Z to Saturday 06Z. This will contribute to an increase in cloud cover, but with a lack of lift in the upper levels, precipitation won’t develop.
A surface low-pressure system will form east of the Rockies on Thursday, and contribute to the formation of the cold front that induces the aforementioned CAA on Friday 21Z. This reiterates the likelihood of the forecast area seeing a drop in temperatures Friday evening. At the surface, the frontal passage is depicted by wind barbs that shift from W to NW on Friday 21Z.
-Robinson