Thursday, March 21st- Afternoon Forecast


Thursday Night- Increasing clouds. Low: 38 F

Friday- Cloudy, light showers possible. High: 69 F

Friday Night- Decreasing Cloudiness. Low: 30 F

Saturday- Partly Cloudy. High: 53 F

Saturday Night- Increasing Cloudiness. Low: 37 F

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General Discussion:

Hello and happy Thursday! For the rest of this week and heading into this weekend, temperatures look to go from the upper 60s on Friday to the mid 50s by Saturday as a cold front passes through the region. Some light showers are possible on Friday that will be associated with the cold front. Skies clear out by Saturday morning, with cloud cover beginning to increase heading into Saturday night as the next storm system begins to approach from Colorado.

-Thomas

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Forecasters: Thomas, Melton, Peine

Date Issued: 3/21/2024 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages:

  1. A low-pressure system (LPS) passing over Arkansas on Friday evening will cause clouds and cooler temperatures.

Both the NAM and the GFS were used for this forecast. They provide similar predictions for the entirety of the forecast period.

The forecast period begins with a trough about to move into the forecast area. Thursday evening is expected to be mostly clear. There is an LPS south of the forecast area that will move across Oklahoma and Arkansas from 15z on Friday to 06z on Saturday. Before the LPS passes through Arkansas, it will draw moisture from the Gulf and into the forecast area. There will be some circulation and lift over the forecast area along with the moisture, leading to trace precipitation and low-level clouds on Friday evening. The LPS will pass over Arkansas by 06z on Saturday, and its cyclonic flow will cause cold air advection by 12z on Saturday, leading to cooler temperatures for Friday night’s low.

Saturday will be cooler, with some clouds early in the morning. After clearing up during the day, moisture will return to the mid-levels on Saturday evening. The mid-levels will remain saturated until the end of the forecast period.

Future forecasters should watch the large LPS moving towards the forecast area at the beginning of next week.