Friday Night: Cloudy, chance for rain. Low: 30°F
Saturday: Partly Cloudy. High: 51°F
Saturday Night: Cloudy. Low: 37°F
Sunday: Cloudy and windy. High: 57°F
Sunday Night: Clouds and a chance for rain. Low: 48°F
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General Discussion:
Happy spring break, Tigers! There is a small chance for rain tonight which will be caused by the passage of a cold front through the forecast area. The weekend will be mostly cloudy, with winds beginning to pick up quite significantly Sunday afternoon. Early Monday morning will likely bring another chance for rain, but thunderstorms are not likely.
-Collier
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Forecasters: Collier, Ebert
Date Issued: 3/22/2024 5:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- A cold front passage Friday evening will advect cold air into the forecast area, likely dropping temperatures below freezing.
- Saturday afternoon will be the only sunny break in an otherwise cloudy weekend.
- Sunday is expected to be very windy, with gusts up to 35mph.
- A band of precipitation will sweep through early Monday morning, but no associated severe weather is expected.
A cold front associated with a passing shortwave will sweep through the forecast area Friday night, bringing with it plenty of clouds, a small chance for rain, and of course, a temperature drop. Zonal upper level flow and a persistent breeze will help it to pass through relatively quickly. This, combined with a dry layer near the surface, will mean lower chances (~30%) of seeing accumulating precipitation, even though the upper levels are saturated enough to produce rain. The temperature will plunge to the low 30s overnight, but by the time temperatures reach below freezing, the main moisture band will have passed, so there is no potential for winter precipitation.
Saturday will see some clearing as a weak high pressure center follows the cold front. This high pressure system will help shift the winds from northerly to southerly over the course of the day, but even with the southerly wind and some sunshine, Saturday’s high temperature is not expected to reach above the low 50s. Cloud cover will begin thickening again Saturday evening as the low level jet begins to advect more moisture into the area.
By Sunday, the low-level jet will intensify, causing gusts up to 35mph. High winds will be aided by an increasing pressure gradient from a low pressure system building to the west, around the Rockies. The low and associated trough are not quite expected to reach the forecast area during this forecast period (that is, by 12Z Monday), but their effects will be felt. Early Monday morning, a band of moisture extending out from the low will pass over the forecast area. This will not be the main precipitation event associated with this system, but we are confident (~80%) that this will result in at least some precipitation before 12Z Monday. However, it is unlikely this one will result in severe weather. There is plenty of positive vorticity advection to be found along the leading edge of the trough, but lower omega values and very little CAPE (under 100 J/kg). Other severe weather indices are also unremarkable. Future shifts should look ahead to Monday evening for likelier chances of severe weather.
-Collier