Friday: Partly cloudy. High: 66F

Friday Night: Small rain chances (30%). Low: 30F

Saturday: Few Cloudy. High: 51F

Saturday Night: Cloudy. Low: 37F

Sunday: Continuing Clouds. High: 57F

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General Discussion:

Happy Friday! Today we will see increasing cloudiness with a small chance of rain (30%) this evening. With the passage of a cold front this afternoon accompanying rain chances, temperatures will drop throughout the night into the low 30s as clouds clear up. Saturday and Sunday is much of the same, with increasing cloudiness and gradual warming through Sunday to start off Spring Break.

-Casserly

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Forecasters: Casserly, Warden, Shaw

Date Issued: 3/22/2024 10:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages:

• Current surface analysis shows a stationary front positioned north of I-70, which is expected to continue southward through today and bring slight rain chances to Columbia, although more significant precipitation will remain to our north.
• Clouds will decrease through Saturday as a small ridge slides east over Missouri ahead of a deepening trough and developing low.
• By Sunday, cloudiness returns as moisture associated with this developing low to our west; temperatures will be warmer compared to Saturday, as slight WAA is present over Missouri throughout the day.

At 250mb, a sailing subtropical jet is present over the southwestern and southern US throughout the weekend. It remains mostly south of our area, although a small ridge does push it north over Missouri ahead of a deepening low. Some divergence can be seen appearing over central and northern Missouri by the evening hours of Sunday, though the bulk of it is centralized to the north in Nebraska and Iowa. 500mb models depict a low to the south that spins off to the southeast, which has little impact to our forecast area, but does add to the trough-ridge pattern that is apparent over the weekend. The ridge pattern seen at 250mb is also present at this level ahead of the large low pressure system that will impact Missouri by the start of next week, which indicates a period of calm weather in between today’s precipitation chances and that of Sunday evening’s.

Upper level moisture is also abundant with the low to our southeast and the impending system at the end of the weekend. Satellite imagery depicts increasing clouds through today, and with the fropa this afternoon I cannot rule out slight rain chances. Any measurable rain will likely be well to the north of Columbia. After today’s low moves out of the area, humidity returns to dry values at 700 and 850mb by Saturday 03Z and remains dry until Sunday afternoon, when RH values climb above 50% by Sunday 03Z. This indicates clouds will increase throughout the day, a departure from the sunny sky on Saturday. Along with increasing moisture, a low-level jet will start to grow and move over Missouri to the east of the surface low on Sunday, aiding the development of evening thunderstorm chances, which is something the next forecast period should keep an eye on.

-Casserly