Wednesday Night: Few clouds. Low: 33°F
Thursday: Low-level, partly cloudy sky. High: 47°F
Thursday Night: Clear/Few clouds. Low: 33°F
Friday: Clear. High: 60°F
Friday Night: Clear. Low: 36°F
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General Discussion:
While Wednesday may have been a cold and cloudy day, expect conditions to clear up and become more mild as the work week finishes up. By Friday, we will be having clear skies and highs in the 60s. Overall, expect spring-like conditions to return soon!
-Cargill
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Forecasters: Cargill, Robinson
Date Issued: 04/03/2024 5:00PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Temperatures will become warmer as the week comes to a close, with highs reaching 60°F before the weekend starts.
- Cloudy conditions will also retreat with the departure of a low-pressure system to our east.
The NAM and GFS models were considered in the making of this forecast. At the 300mb level, a low-pressure system begins to exit the CWA, taking with it the moisture that has draped mid-Missouri in cloud cover throughout the week. This system is being pushed out by a pronounced, upper-level ridge as it moves into the central CONUS. This feature is expected to bring with it more settled weather and clear skies, with little to no upper-level divergence projected across mid-Missouri for the entire forecast period.
This same ridge can be found at the 500mb level. Here, it is modeled to push out an abundance of strong vorticity currently centered on mid-Missouri due to the aforementioned low-pressure system. Once this vorticity departs around early Thursday, there is no more vorticity modeled for the rest of the forecast period. This supports the clear, stable conditions that were forecast Thursday through Friday.
As expected, modeled moisture at the 700mb level is expected to leave with the low-pressure system as it is pushed out. This will be the cause of the clearing conditions. Clouds at this level should clear out throughout Wednesday night. There is no strong WAA or CAA forecasted at this level or the 850mb level. The difference between the two, however, is that moisture will not completely clear out of the 850mb level until at least early Friday. This will cause some partly cloudy conditions until then. Additionally, a strong LLJ is to move in past the forecast period. Future forecasters should watch this development.
At the surface, the 540 contour for 1000-500-mb thickness is modeled to linger around mid-Missouri until early Thursday before it retreats to the north. This is indicative of warming temperatures as the week continues. Additionally, a surface high-pressure system is modeled to exist around the CWA come early Friday. Finally, a wind shift to the northeast is projected as this forecast period ends. Future forecasters should watch the upper-level low-pressure system that is modeled to be positioned on the tail end of the previously mentioned ridge. This could cause some unsettled weather sometime into the next week.
-Cargill