Tuesday, April 9th – Evening Forecast
Tuesday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 48°F
Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy. High 61°F
Wednesday Night: Increasing Clouds and Light Rain. Low: 47°F
Thursday: Light Rain. High: 63°F
Thursday Night: Decreasing Cloud Cover. Low: 42°F
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General Discussion:
Northerly winds combined with cloud cover will keep temperatures around average. Rain chances will become possible on Wednesday evening into the early hours of Thursday with moderate chances (30-50%). Clear skies will return by Thursday and a warm up into the weekend is expected.
-Thee
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Forecasters: Thee, Yost
Date Issued: 04/09/2024 5:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Moderate chance (30-50%) chance of light rain on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
A cold front made its way through the CWA last night which transitioned wind patterns to a more northerly component that will stick around for the remainder of the forecast period. The northerly wind component paired with cloud cover will allow for temperatures to stick around average (Avg High 65).
Current visible satellite imagery and radar depict scattered showers over the southern portion of Missouri. The showers are expected to remain elevated as they stay to the north of a current stationary boundary that is draped across southern Missouri. No accumulation is expected as the showers move into the area due to a stiff dry layer in place at the surface with all moisture expected to evaporate before reaching the surface.
A neutrally tilted trough currently sits over the Southern Plains and will continue on its eastward trajectory. As the trough progresses, it will take on a slight negative tilt by Wednesday evening. The CWA will stay far north of the strong areas of diffluence that can be noted in the lower Mississippi River Valley associated with the exit region of the upper-level jet streak. A surface low-pressure system associated with the trough will hover through southeastern portions of Missouri and will bring moisture into the area. The low-pressure system is expected to sit over eastern Missouri early Thursday morning. Rain chances are expected to remain moderate (30-50%) for the area due to the CWA staying on the northern side of the quasi-stationary boundary associated with the low-pressure system. SREF and HREF rain totals show accumulations ranging from 0.01″ to 0.2″ throughout Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. However, confidence remains on the lower range of the totals due to a lack of moisture and placement of the frontal boundary.
An upper-level ridge will quickly build in behind the trough as it makes its way to the eastern CONUS. With the ridge building in, a surface high-pressure system is expected to hover just to the southwest of the CWA by the end of the forecast period and will begin to allow for winds to switch to a more southerly mode.
-Thee