Thursday Night: Decreasing Clouds. Low: 40°F
Friday: Partly Cloudy. High: 57°F
Friday Night: Party Cloudy. Low: 42°F
Saturday: Partly Cloudy. Low: 57°F
Saturday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 38°F
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General Discussion:
As Thursday comes to an end, so do the warmer daily highs. A cold front passing this evening will bring cooler weather on Friday and Saturday with high temperatures in the 50’s. Expect partly cloudy conditions through the weekend as well.
-Melton
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Forecasters: Thomas, Melton, PEINE
Date Issued: 04/18/2024 4:45 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Cooler temperatures into the upper 50s and low 60s are on the way for Friday and into the weekend
- No precipitation is expected for the forecast period
The models that were used for this forecast are the GFS and the NAM. They have differences in their predictions for the weekend that are explained later on.
At 250 mb, there is a long-wave trough that is located in the north central CONUS that is moving to the southeast towards the region. There is some upper-level divergence present over the region. At 500 mb, there is some circulation over the region with ample moisture being present at 700 mb and 850 mb. This led to the thunderstorms occurring today that are associated with a cold front.
Heading into tonight, the passage of the cold front will dry out the atmosphere and lead to mostly clear conditions. On Friday, with no divergence aloft at 250 mb, some moisture at 700 mb, and no moisture present at 850 mb, we expect partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 60s.
Friday night going into Saturday, this moisture will move to the south and allow for skies to clear. The upper-level trough is also directly overhead at this time and CAA is dominant over the region which will help lead to the coolest temperatures for this forecast period into the upper 50s for Saturday.
Heading late into Saturday night and for the rest of this forecast period, the GFS brings in moisture at 700 mb to the region while the NAM does not. We lean towards the NAM because it is a nonhydrostatic model and has had a better consensus with the forecast than the GFS. With that, skies will stay generally clear and allow low temperatures to fall into the upper 30s.
Future forecast shifts should keep an eye on the upper-level ridge building into the region beginning next week. There is a disturbance at the edge of the ridge which could lead to some rain Monday night.
– Thomas