Tuesday, April 23rd – Afternoon Forecast

Tuesday Night: Decreasing Clouds. Low: 43°F

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 68°F

Wednesday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 48°F

Thursday: Scattered Showers. High: 62°F

Thursday Night: Scattered Showers, Thunderstorms Possible. Low: 53°F

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General Discussion:

Ample sunshine will be the main picture on Wednesday, but will quickly diminish by Thursday as rain chances become possible. Rain chances on Thursday are expected to bring in totals of 0.25″ to 0.5″ with high confidence (50-70%).

-Thee

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Forecasters: Thee, Yost

Date Issued: 04/23/2024 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages:

-A cold front continues to move through the area

-Rain chances on Thursday with accumulations expected around 0.25″ to 0.5″ with high confidence (50-70%).

Both the NAM and GFS were used in the aid of this forecast as they both accurately place a low-pressure system over the Great Lakes Region and show strong agreement throughout the forecast period.

Current visible satellite imagery depicts a cold front progressing through central Missouri and bringing along with it scattered showers. Radar indicates precipitation ongoing to the south of the CWA just ahead of the cold front, but no rain is expected to occur behind the front. The cold front will influence winds back to a northerly aspect throughout the day on Wednesday.

The CWA currently sits just to the south of the jet streak associated with an upper-level trough currently in place throughout the northeastern portion of the CONUS. The trough will continue to push through the northeastern CONUS and an upper-level ridge will begin to build in behind it. The ridge is expected to be directly over the region by Wednesday evening. An associated high-pressure system will begin to move into the region by early Wednesday morning and will quickly move off to the northeast by early Thursday morning.

As the ridge moves off to the east, a trough will build in directly behind it. The negatively-tilted trough will eject into the Central Plains region on Thursday evening and will continue to progress into the area. Diffluence associated with an upper-level jet streak will present the CWA with rain chances beginning on Thursday. Scattered showers are the expected outcome beginning Thursday morning, but by Thursday evening thunderstorms will become possible as CAPE values exceeding 500 J/Kg are indicated by ensemble members. SREF and GEFS plumes exhibit rain totals ranging from 0.25″ to 0.5″. Confidence in these totals remain high (50-70%) due to the strong agreement between the GFS and NAM soundings that present a very saturated column sticking around most of the day on Thursday and into Friday morning.

Future forecasters should continue to monitor the trough as it continues to move into the area on Friday and could present the CWA with the possibility of severe weather.

-Thee