Friday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms before midnight. Low: 62°F
Saturday: Partly cloudy with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms. High: 81°F
Saturday Night: Rain showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Low: 65°F
Sunday: Partly cloudy with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms. High: 74°F
Sunday Night: Scattered thunderstorms. Low: 59°F
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General Discussion:
Good afternoon Tigers. The central U.S. is experiencing an active weather pattern that has the potential for all severe hazards. This potential will stick around our area for multiple days. Currently, the greatest threat of severe thunderstorms is to our west. By the time they make it to Mid-MO late this evening, some of us may see a quick shower or thunderstorm, but the severe potential will be low. Later in the weekend however, there will be more chances for thunderstorms including the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes across Missouri.
-Ebert, Collier
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Forecasters: Ebert, McCormack
Date Issued: 04/26/2024 6:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
At 250 mb, a trough located over the Southwest CONUS is going to be our driving force for an active weather pattern this weekend. As the aforementioned trough continues to deepen and slowly push east, it will take on a negatively tilted aspect which is one of the many factors that will support multiple thunderstorm chances over the next few days. Currently at the surface, we are tracking strong thunderstorms from Texas to Nebraska and these will continue to push off to the northeast over the next couple of hours. For central Missouri late this evening, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible with severe potential possible across western Missouri. These storms will quickly dissipate around midnight, but any storms before that should be watched closely.
For Saturday, our upper-level trough will continue to strengthen and set the stage for potentially strong to violent storms from Oklahoma to Nebraska. With a warm southerly wind present all weekend, low-level moisture will quickly advect northward throughout the Central U.S. Saturday afternoon, so cloud cover will begin to increase as we get into the afternoon and evening hours. With some sunshine present and winds gusting up to 30 mph at times, temperatures will rise into the low 80s. The severe weather potential is still a little uncertain at the moment. Widespread surface-based CAPE values of 2500-3000 J/Kg will be present late Saturday afternoon, however, the greatest forcing will be across Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska with a potent 50-60 kt low-level jet, so storms are likely to fire out ahead of a developing low pressure center in Kansas Saturday afternoon. If storms are able to initiate by the evening hours, all hazards are possible including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. By Saturday night, this line of storms will congeal and pose the threat of hail and damaging winds to our area. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out, but should be short lived. Heavy rain and localized flash flooding will be the main concern late Saturday night into Sunday morning with K-Index values near 40 and stronger gulf moisture advecting northward. Higher rainfall totals appear to be southwest of Columbia, however, totals greater than 0.5″ will be widespread across western and central Missouri with localized totals greater than 1.00″ for areas in southwest Missouri.
Rain should continue into early Sunday morning as the low pressure slowly moves northeast into Nebraska. This is the part of the forecast where uncertainty grows. There are two possible scenarios for Sunday afternoon and evening. The first and the one we’re more confident in is that cloud cover will linger throughout the early afternoon hours and limit daytime heating for higher end potential of severe thunderstorms. Storms with large hail, damaging winds, and the possibly of tornadoes could still occur with this scenario late Sunday afternoon and evening. The other scenario would be clouds dissipating early Sunday afternoon, allowing for more daytime heating. With Surface-based CAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/Kg and an even stronger low-level jet at 850 mb, storms could become severe quickly Sunday evening and pose even greater severe hazards. In summation, the greatest factors for Sunday will depend on the forward motion of the low pressure and how quick the clouds move out Sunday morning and afternoon.
By late Sunday evening, central Missouri will have another chance of rain, but won’t be as widespread as Saturday night. At least 0.25″ of rain with this round is likely and localized totals may reach 0.75″ to 1.00″ depending on where storms track. A few rumbles of thunder will be likely with this, but the chance for severe storms decreases as we get closer to Monday morning. Finally, the rain will begin to clear out as we start the work week on Monday. Overall rain totals for this weekend should be between 1 and 2 inches, with some spots exceeding 3 inches in southwest Missouri.
Thank you for a great semester and this is the Friday afternoon CWF shift signing off one final time.
– Ebert, McCormack