Friday: Breezy with scattered thunderstorms. High: 70F

Friday Night: Cloudy. Low: 62F

Saturday: Afternoon thunderstorms. High: 81F

Saturday Night: Widespread thunderstorms, with increased severe potential. Low: 67F

Sunday: Continuing thunderstorms, severe potential increasing by the evening. High: 74F

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General Discussion:

Happy Friday Tigers! After an early morning stormy start, we will see a brief calm period today before another round of action tonight. Breezy conditions will be consistent through Sunday and rounds of thunderstorms will pass over mid-Missouri tonight, tomorrow night, and Sunday afternoon. Know your severe weather action plan and stay weather aware! Severe weather with all hazard types will be possible with each round of storms as two low pressure systems make their way across the CONUS this weekend.

-Casserly

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Forecasters: Casserly, Warden, Shaw

Date Issued: 04/26/2024 10:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages:

• Two low pressure centers will trudge their way across the Midwest this weekend, bringing three rounds of thunderstorms each evening throughout the forecast period.
• Both the GFS and NAM were consulted for this forecast, however the GFS was more heavily leaned on due to its better handle on temperatures and the incoming severe weather threat.
• Temperatures will be warmer this weekend compared to this last work week, as southerly winds and high surface dewpoints (mid-50s) accompany this weekend’s active weather pattern.

Currently, widespread precipitation is present over much of western and southwestern Missouri. Columbia did see some thunderstorms this morning just before waking hours, but there will be a calmer period before another round of storms impacts our area. Upper air maps depict two distinct rounds of activity through our forecast period–today and tomorrow night. By late afternoon today, around 18-21Z, a broken line of divergence will pass over central Missouri at the base of the upper-level low, accompanied by scattered vorticity advection at 500mb. Moisture throughout 700 and 850mb will be present today, and a near “floor-to-ceiling” low-level jet is stationed over the central US currently. This LLJ will be impacted by the incoming low pressure as it spins northeast through Saturday, strengthening over Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southern Missouri. Combined with surface dew points above 50F all day, these factors will aid thunderstorm development later this afternoon, provided clearing is possible and if the cap breaks, severe potential increases significantly. Surface 3-hr precipitation accumulation nears 0.25″ in central Missouri at 00Z this evening, while southern Missouri may see higher totals near or above 0.5″.

Saturday is expected to be quieter until the evening, when a second low pressure at the base of a negatively-tilting trough pushes east. At 250mb, divergence at the base of this trough strengthens in a line across western Missouri overnight, leading to thunderstorm development at the surface. Through the mid- and lower-levels, vorticity advection and widespread moisture will also be present around Sunday 09Z, indicating that this is the best time for strong thunderstorms during this forecast period. The main uncertainty comes from the lack of significant lift that will be present. Model soundings throughout Saturday depict a strong capping inversion that slowly erodes by 00Z, with CAPE values nearing 3000J/kg. Late evening and overnight thunderstorms are most likely at this time, and the severe weather threat supports all hazard types. This thunderstorm mode will continue into the daylight hours as the second low will push east. Sunday evening supports an even better chance for severe weather, so it is highly advised that future forecasters keep an eye on this incoming system.

-Casserly