Monday, August 26 – Afternoon Forecast

Monday, August 26th – Afternoon Forecast

Monday Night: Mostly Clear. Low 74°F

Tuesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 98°F

Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. 20-30% chance for showers/t-storms. Low: 74°F

Wednesday: Scattered morning showers. High 94°F

Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 72°F

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General Discussion:

The heat will continue over the next few days with air you can wear. A heat advisory is in effect until Tuesday at 8pm due to the hot temperatures and humidity. First chances of showers/storms show up late Tuesday night but chances are looking rather small.

Peine, Carrier, Bean

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Forecasters: Peine, Carrier, Bean

Date Issued: 08/26/2024 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages:

• Heat continues into Wednesday with afternoon heat indices around 100 degrees.
• Slight chances for scattered storms exist during the Tuesday night into Wednesday morning time frame.

A mid/upper level ridge is currently in place with its axis draped from Texas into the Great Lakes region. This ridge will slowly shift to the east by Wednesday as an upper level shortwave trough, that is currently positioned over Montana, shifts to the northeast into Canada. As the shortwave trough moves to our north, it will advect small amounts of moisture north into our region, setting up the potential for some rain and storms on Tuesday night.

On Tuesday, the upper level shortwave’s attendant surface front will be dropping south into the Midwest. Along and ahead of this weak cold front, there will be 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE present. However, with very weak wind shear in place, any storms that develop will be scattered and unorganized, with the most likely timing of this occurring from 03z to 12z on Wednesday. Unfortunately, the weak cold front will diminish before reaching us, leading to another very warm day on Wednesday. Future forecasting shifts should monitor any potential relief from the summertime heat.

– Peine, Carrier, Bean