Monday, August 26th – Morning Forecast

Monday: Partly Cloudy. High: 98°F

Monday Night: Mostly Clear. Low 74°F

Tuesday: Sunny. Mostly Sunny. High: 98°F

Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 74°F

Wednesday: Slight chance of rain. High 94°F

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General Discussion:

The heat trend is continuing upwards over the course of the next few days. Heat advisories will be the primary concern for throughout the majority of the week. First chances of rain show up on Wednesday, but chances are looking rather small.

Blodgett, Elston, Nobles

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Forecasters: Blodgett, Elston, Nobles

Date Issued: 08/26/2024 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

As the summer months begin to come to a close, the summer heat continues to be a large presence over the mid-western region of the CONUS. A blend of the GFS and NAM was used to produce this forecast. However, due to the passiveness of low level moisture, there will be a bias towards the GFS model. A dominant high pressure system is currently sitting over the mid-western CONUS that is preventing any cooler air mass from moving into the region. At 250 mb, The steep upper-level ridge is locked in place over the Mid-Mississippi valley, and will be slowly moving out of the region by mid Tuesday. This upper level ridge will be one of the key component to dangerously high temperatures over the duration of the forecast window.

Moving down to 700 mb, The relative humidity values over mid-Missouri aren’t high enough for there to be any convincing cloud cover. This will lead the high temperatures to stay relatively unchanged over the coming days. The GFS is showing some higher relative humidity values at 700 mb in the early morning hours of Wednesday, which could hint at some more dense mid-level cloud cover. This coincides with the drop in the high temperature seen on Wednesday. Though the high temperature takes a small drop, it is still expected to peak in the mid 90s.

The first chance of rain is being presented on Wednesday morning on the GFS. This is also reflected on the GFS run in Sharppy. Deep moisture isn’t present in the soundings, so any precipitation that occurs will most likely be light rain. However, this small rain event will not be enough to deter the high temperatures from reaching concerning levels throughout the rest of the forecast window. Winds will be very light and not offer much cooling as the heat passes by.

– Blodgett, Elston, Nobles