Wednesday, August 28 – Morning Forecast
Wednesday: Scattered morning showers/t-storms. High: 92°F
Wednesday Night: Partly Clear. Low: 72°F
Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High: 95°F
Thursday Night: increasing Clouds. Low: 72°F
Friday: Scattered showers/storms. High: 87°F
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General Discussion:
Scattered showers and storms will diminish by the afternoon today leading to another warm and muggy day across the region. Some quieter weather will exist tonight through Thursday night before a weak cold front moves through on Friday, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and more precipitation chances.
– Peine, Brucker, McCurdy, Latlip
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Forecasters: Peine, Brucker, McCurdy, Latlip
Date Issued: 08/28/2024 9:00 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Morning showers and storms are expected to diminish by noon today leading to another pleasant, but warm and muggy day.
- A weak cold front will move through Friday bringing slight heat relief and some chances for more rain.
Currently, there are scattered showers around the area due to a weak mid-upper level shortwave that is propagating through the region. This shortwave is expected to exit the area by the afternoon, taking our rain chances with it, leading to a partly cloudy but dry day today. With southerly winds in place today, warm air advection will allow temperatures to reach the low 90s once again. A small upper level ridge will build over us for a brief time tomorrow ahead of an approaching upper level trough to the northwest. With rising heights aloft, calm, but muggy weather is expected tomorrow.
Our next good chance for rain will come from an upper level trough that is currently over Montana. As this upper level trough traverses across the Canadian border to our north on Friday, its associated surface front will be approaching the area. This weak cold front is expected to be nearing central Missouri by midday on Friday. Ahead of this front, moisture will be on the increase due to deep southerly winds advecting moisture in from the Gulf region. Much of the model guidance shows any rain along and behind the front falling apart before reaching the area and redeveloping once the front is past us. The redevelopment when the front is past us is likely due to the low level jet kicking in Friday night, providing enough wind shear to support organized precipitation along the front. The exact timing of the frontal passage, which is uncertain at this time, will determine how warm we get on Friday along with when the best chances for precipitation are. Regardless, this front will bring slightly cooler temperatures that should last into the weekend.
– Peine, Brucker, McCurdy, Latlip