Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High: 93°F

Thursday Night: Increasing clouds. Low: 72°F

Friday: Increasing clouds with rain showers likely and storms possible. High: 87°F

Friday Night: Showers early then cloudy. Low: 67°F

Saturday: Decreasing clouds. High: 83°F

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General Discussion:

Hot and humid conditions will continue for Thursday with partly cloudy skies. Thursday night will be dry and calm ahead of an approaching cold front that will bring clouds followed by showers and storm chances in the afternoon. These rain chances will have associated cloud cover and cooler temperatures heading into Saturday.

– Simmons, Malone, Bivens, Huebner

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Forecasters: Simmons, Malone, Bivens, Huebner

Date Issued: 08/29/2024 9:30 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages:

-One more day of hot and humid temperatures with heat index values near 100

-Our next rain chance develops Friday morning, becoming more likely in the late afternoon to evening hours

-There is a potential for stronger storms Friday afternoon and evening with increased atmospheric instability

The upper level ridge that has given Missouri warmer than average temperatures will start to break down and shift eastward. Winds out of the south will help increase low level moisture this afternoon. Highs are expected to range from the low to mid 90s with heat index values near 100. With peak heating this afternoon, an isolated shower is possible, but unlikely to occur.

Our next considerable rain chance will come from a shortwave trough currently sitting over the northern plains. An attendant cold front with this trough will propagate through the Upper Midwest early Friday morning. As instability wanes overnight Thursday into Friday, showers and storms will continue to dissipate throughout the Friday morning hours. With some clearing Friday, more instability will build in during the afternoon with HREF mean MU CAPE around 1500 J/kg. Wind shear will be modest with 20-30 knots providing the opportunity for storms to be strong to severe along the front as it slows down Friday afternoon. Hail up to quarters and stronger wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms, but short-term model guidance displays the most convection closer to the I-44 corridor. Enough lift will be evident along the front heading into the Friday evening hours where showers and storms are possible, but as the front slowly slides south so will the precipitation chances.

Some lingering cloud cover looks to be the case Saturday morning behind the front which would affect high temperatures only reaching the lower 80s. Clearing is expected as clouds will sag southward during the afternoon. This will pave way for a cooler and drier forecast heading into the rest of the Labor Day weekend.

-Simmons, Bivens, Malone, Huebner