Tuesday: Partly Sunny. High: 81
Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 55
Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 84
Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 63
Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High: 90
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General Discussion:
Temperatures will remain average (80’s) for the start of the forecast period with highs slowly rising into the 90’s around Thursday. Clouds will remain sparse for a majority of the week, and (paired with low humidity) will stave off a steep rise in temperatures. Nearing the end of the forecast period however, there will be a front moving into the region pushing temperatures into the 90s.
Beach
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Forecasters: Beach, John, Alcorn, Chirpich
Date Issued: 09/03/2024 9:00 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Temperatures are expected to increase quickly throughout the forecast period, ranging from lower 80s into the lower 90s towards the end of the week.
- A storm system begins to push into the forecast area Thursday night, with increasing chances of showers after the forecast period.
Both the GFS and NAM are used for this forecast. A deepening trough is seen at 250MB moving eastward across the upper Great Plains. While this deepens, ridging is expected to become more prominent over the forecast area. The ridging and little-to-no divergence over the forecast area allows for fair weather throughout the beginning of the work week. Around Thursday night into Friday morning, this trough will bring in an upper-level low from the Rockies into mid-Missouri, which increases the chance for unsettled weather as the forecast period concludes.
At 500MB, some vorticity exists south of the forecast area, demonstrating unsettled weather within the Ozark Plateau through Wednesday night. However, in mid-Missouri, vorticity does not reach into the area, preventing anything more than clouds from forming. Relative humidity values at 700MB are not significant, further limiting any precipitation from occurring near Columbia. Moisture finally moves into Missouri as the end of the work week approaches, which allows for cloud cover Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Omega values are associated with this incoming moisture, leading to potential showers and thunderstorms as the evening progresses. Future forecasters should keep an eye on this system, since the GFS and the NAM do not agree on timing.
Easterly to southeasterly winds are shown at 850MB, associated with a high-pressure system over the eastern CONUS. These winds bring in Atlantic moisture transport, cutting off the Gulf of Mexico’s influence. This high-pressure is expected to move eastward relatively quickly as the work week progresses. This quick movement will allow for temperatures to increase throughout the forecast period (low 80’s to start, low 90’s to end). The aforementioned movement is caused by a low-pressure system over southern Texas which is moving northeast. Alongside the deepening trough in the Rockies, this system will enable active weather into Friday morning. Soundings show the prevalence of moisture at and beyond the 500MB level Tuesday night, but overall, instability and surface moisture are stifled until the end of the forecast period. As mentioned previously, future forecasters should focus on the increasing possibility of unsettled weather as the weekend approaches.
-Beach, John, Alcorn, Chirpich