Friday Night: Mostly clear. Morning fog possible. Low: 49°F
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High: 72°F
Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 46°F
Sunday: Sunny. High: 74°F
Sunday Night: Clear. Low: 48°F
=============================================================================
General Discussion:
It’s game weekend! Tonight will be the start of a cooler spell for Mid-Missouri, with lows dipping into the mid-40s. Over the weekend expect highs in the mid-70s and a clear sky to boot! Expect temperatures in the upper-60s to low-70s for kickoff at home tomorrow!
– Schwent
=============================================================================
Forecasters: Yost, Slutter, Schwent
Date Issued: 09/06/2024 5:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
– Fog could briefly disrupt morning drives tomorrow (5-8am), especially along river fronts.
– Cool dry air has entered the Midwest throughout today, and will keep temperatures below average (Avg. Low 62°F) over the weekend.
– A clear sky with no (0%) rain chances throughout the entirety of the forecast period.
As of 18z Friday, a cold front was draped from the ArkLaTex region through the Ohio valley. This cold front caused brief showers and thunderstorms across Missouri Friday morning. When the cold front passed through Columbia, it took with it warm and unstable air, pushing it southward with time. The air mass which has come in behind the aforementioned cold front is of continental polar origin. This has resulted in a significantly cooler day as of 18z Friday (upper 70s), compared to Thursday (lower 90s), and has also resulted in unseasonably low dew points (mid 40s – lower 50s). This continental polar air mass is expected to persist through the weekend. Expect weekend high temperatures in the lower 70s, and low temperatures in the mid 40s.
Winds of 10-15mph were observed at KCOU Friday afternoon as a result of the cold front that passed Friday morning. As the influence of this front wanes, winds are expected to significantly decrease Friday overnight, with guidance indicating sustained winds of 5-10mph. While low-level (850mb) winds are expected to be on the order of 20-25kts, a robust low level temperature inversion will prevent these winds from mixing to the surface overnight. Given the dry air mass, nocturnal cooling is expected to be very efficient, with a difference of around 30°F expected between the daytime high temperature, and the overnight low temperature. This will result in an overnight low in the upper-40s (~8°C), which is significantly lower than the 925mb temperature of ~18°C which is expected overnight, this will generate the previously mentioned temperature inversion. The dew point is sitting around the low-mid 40s as of 21z Friday, and since little moisture advection is expected in the near term, model guidance indicates that little change in dew point is expected overnight. This coupled with an overnight low in the upper 40s will result in dew point depressions around or under 5 (RH>80%). Sky condition is expected to be clear, as the continental polar air mass brings dry air both at the surface and aloft. All of these factors together will result in the possibility of fog, especially along river beds early Saturday (5-8 am).
A large upper-level thermal ridge is located over the four-corners region, and is sluggishly moving eastward. This will be of little significance to our forecast area at the beginning of the period (Friday Night-Saturday Night), however, this ridge will slowly start to erode away at the cold, dry air mass which has recently entered our forecast area by Sunday. A slight bump to foretasted high and low temperatures compared to Saturday was made to account for this. This will mark the beginning of a gradual warmup, which is expected to be most prominent outside of the forecast period.
-Schwent, Yost