Monday, September 16th – Morning Forecast
Monday: Partly Cloudy. High: 85°F
Monday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 63°F
Tuesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 87°F
Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 61°F
Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 87°F
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General Discussion:
After a slight chance of rain today, sunshine and above average temperatures will return and remain present over the course of the current forecast. A relatively stable weather pattern will build into the area and keep cloud cover to a minimum across central Missouri.
– Blodgett, Nobles
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Forecasters: Blodgett, Nobles
Date Issued: 09/16/2024 9:00 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages
- Last day of major cloud cover and rain chances
- A shift in winds will bring down the overnight lows
- Stable atmospheric patterns will reduce cloud cover and increase the high temperatures
As the low from former hurricane Francine dissipates, mid-Missouri will be getting one last day of dominant cloud cover and potential rain chances. This low will eventually move eastward and get cycled into the developing low near the Carolina region off the east coast. As this happens, high pressure from the ridge over the central and eastern CONUS will be the dominating factor in the atmosphere for the duration of this forecast.
The GFS is showing wind patterns shifting to a northwesterly flow at 250 mb as the low over Arkansas moves out of the midwestern region. This change in wind patterns will bring in more dry air, which reduce the cloud cover and bring down the overnight lows (low 60s.) The aforementioned broad ridge over central and eastern CONUS will bring stable air to the midwestern region, which in turn means hotter high temps (mid to upper 80s) and more passive weather patterns.
Moving down to 700 and 850 mb, there is still moisture present today from the weakening Arkansas low, however that will be clearing up throughout today to bring sunshine back into the area. Any chances of rain today will either fall to the south of the viewing area, or will not fall in general. There isn’t enough moisture at the surface to make a convincing case that there will be rain today. As the sun comes out, that will promote more daytime heating and increase the gap between the temperature and the dewpoint. As for the coming days in the forecast, moisture presence will be very little, with only a few clouds passing through occasionally.
-Blodgett, Nobles