Thursday: Increasing Clouds. High: 90
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 68
Friday: Partly cloudy. High: 92
Friday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 70
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with showers possible. High: 84
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General Discussion:
Above average temperatures will be in the 90s for Thursday and Friday. Increasing clouds the next few days will gradually start to bring temperatures down heading into the weekend. Our best rain chances are Friday night and Saturday with up to a quarter of an inch expected. Higher amounts are still possible the rest of the weekend.
– Bivens, Simmons
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Forecasters: Bivens, Simmons, Malone
Date Issued: 09/19/2024 9:45 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
-The above average seasonal temperature trend sticks around until the weekend.
– Increased cloud cover and lift will bring chances for rain Friday night and Saturday.
Current conditions consist of higher than average temperatures due to a building ridge moving through our area. Water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave trough stationed in the Dakotas that is sending lobes of vorticity southward into our region. This, in addition to a bowling ball low forming off of the coast of California sets the stage for the potential for eventful atmospheric conditions looking into next week. The cold front draped from North Dakota to eastern Colorado will serve as a forcing mechanism that could aid in convective formation Friday night and Saturday. As the front passes through, it will begin to fall apart.
Surface level CAPE values according to the SPC HREF range from 1000-1500 J/kg Thursday night into Friday. This instability, paired with moisture and warmth, propagating into our region will introduce rain chances. Precipitation amounts could reach a quarter of an inch by late Saturday afternoon. Less than impressive amounts of divergence aloft will inhibit severe storm formation, so expect nothing more than occasional showers and rumbles of thunder. The low forming off of the west coast will bring about vorticity advection beginning Friday night, with a gradual increase going into Saturday.
The aforementioned CAPE values persist going into Saturday, with the NAM showing values of 2000+ J/kg. Daytime highs begin to drop due to increased cloud cover moving through our area. The trough, paired with the low pressure system, will introduce even lower temperatures next week and chances for even more rain which will be an issue that the next forecast group has the privilege of forecasting.
-Bivens, Simmons