Wednesday Evening Forecast 09/25/24
Wednesday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 53
Thursday: Increasing Clouds High: 77
Thursday Night: Cloudy. Low: 58
Friday: Cloudy with light showers (30-40%). High: 75
Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy Low: 61
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General Discussion:
Clear sky conditions on Wednesday night will allow for temperatures to fall into the lower 50s. Clouds will begin to stream in by the afternoon hours on Thursday as highs will be held in the upper 70s. Cloudy conditions will continue through the end of the week thanks to moisture from Hurricane Helene. Rain chances will enter the area on Friday with the remnants of Hurricane Helene, but look to stay between 30-40% across Central Missouri.
– Thee, Stevens, McCluskey
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Forecasters: Thee, Stevens, McCluskey
Date Issued: 09/25/2024 5:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
-Temperatures hover around seasonal
-Increasing clouds Thursday through the forecast period ahead of the remnants of Hurricane Helene
-Rain Chances return by Friday
A ridge and trough are currently in place directly overhead of the region as the surface high-pressure system associated with the upper-level ridge continues to dominate the western and central portions of the CONUS. The ridge will slowly progress to the east overnight leading to clear sky conditions that will result in temperatures falling into the lower 50s Wednesday night with the help of northerly winds. Temperatures through the end of the week will persist around seasonal (Avg. High: 76, Avg. Low: 54).
By the afternoon hours on Thursday an upper-level low associated with the trough will start to become cutoff from the main flow. As the aforementioned low becomes pinched off it will begin to take on a southward trajectory. By mid-day Friday, the cutoff low will interact with Hurricane Helene and a Fujiwara effect can be observed as the cutoff low seems to become the dominant system. With the convergence of these two, the expected track will become northeasterly in nature and lead to ample moisture across the southeastern portions of the CONUS all the way up to the Upper-Mississippi River Valley. This moisture presence will lead to cloud cover not only Thursday, but through the end of the forecast period. With a sharp moisture gradient cutoff over the area, a wide range in rainfall totals are apparent. Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) were used in tandem with SREF and GEFS Plumes to gain a better grasp of the moisture gradient and its effects on rainfall totals. Totals are expected to range from a trace to a quarter of an inch for the CWA, however, confidence remains moderate on these chances (30-40%).
-Thee, Stevens