- Friday Evening Forecast 09/27/2024
Friday Night: Cloudy. Low: 64°F
Saturday: Decreasing clouds. High: 76°F
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 60°F
Sunday: Partly cloudy. High: 77°F - Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 60°F
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General Discussion:
Remnants of Hurricane Helene are stationed over a good portion of the Eastern United States and will remain stationary till early next week. This is going to give us some cloud cover over the weekend, but this will decrease with time over the forecast period. Expect some gusty winds (35-40 mph) as well overnight tonight, calming down by Sunday night. Few rain chances (10%) tonight and tomorrow morning, so expect a mostly dry weekend. - – Slutter
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Forecasters: Yost, Schwent, Slutter
Date Issued: 09/27/2024 5:30 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages: - – Lots of cloud cover is expected overnight and through the beginning of the day Saturday, but will begin decreasing with time throughout the remainder of the weekend.
- – Gusty winds (35-40 mph) are set to happen overnight Friday, with ample winds throughout Saturday as well, calming down as we approach the end of the forecast period.
With the remnants of Helene remaining stationary to the east for the next couple of days, our weather patterns will continue to be cloudy and windy for the beginning half of the weekend. Current satellite imagery shows abundant cloud cover over our area, resulting in cooler temperatures (10°F cooler) Friday than we’ve seen throughout the week. Due to the tight pressure gradient of Helene and the combined cutoff low aloft, the LLJ is surging at around 45 kts and has the potential to mix down to the surface overnight Friday. Surface wind gusts of 35-40 mph are likely tonight before the low pressure system weakens. Winds will continue to be strong, but will quiet down as we approach Sunday into Monday morning.
GFS and NAM both placed our forecast area on the outskirts of a moisture plume. The NAM has a more favorable outcome for more moisture in our area, but the GFS doesn’t reach out the moisture content to the western side of Missouri as much. With this said, the NAM solution is the more favorable outcome of the two models in terms of where cloud cover is going to be. This will prevent sufficient surface heating during the day, resulting in our temperatures staying lower (Highs in the mid-70s, lows in the mid-60s) than what is expected by the GFS. This is also expected due to the northerly flow of wind throughout the troposphere, which will aid in these cooler temperatures. The general trend is to expect decreasing cloud cover Saturday into Sunday because of Helene weakening with time, and the moisture plume shifts east within the coming days.
- Yost, Slutter