Tuesday: Sunny. High: 71°F

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 44°F

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 74°F

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 52°F

Thursday: Sunny. High: 85°F

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General Discussion:

 Looking at this week we are expecting lower temperatures and drier conditions than we have been getting. We will be expecting a rise back up to the mid 80s on Thursday. For the first week of October be prepared for cooler mornings, so do not forget to grab a jacket when you head out the door!

– John

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Forecasters: John, Chirpich, Beach, Alcorn

Date Issued: 10/01/2024 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages 

• A weak cold front moves into the area early Tuesday pushing most moisture out of the region. 

• Warmer than average (68°F) high temperatures advect into Missouri early Thursday. 

The primary models used for this forecast were the NAM and the GFS as they have a general consensus during the forecast period. At 300 mb, there is a zonal jet streak hovering over Minnesota and Iowa. However, the jet streak never reaches the area as a high-pressure system settles over the region on Wednesday. This high-pressure regime stays in place for the rest of the forecast period preventing unsettled weather from occurring. The primary concern at this level is a low -pressure system that starts to develop over far western Colorado and eastern Utah early Thursday. Though this low starts to develop, it will not push the high-pressure system out of the area during this forecast period. 

At 500 mb there is a similar story as high-pressure settles over the Ozarks and Ohio River Valley. This once again keeps chances for unsettled weather damped as the system remains over the area for the foreseeable future. Moving into 700 mb, that high-pressure is still present, killing all lift under its umbrella. This system is brought on by a weak cold front that pushed through Columbia early Tuesday, drying up the upper-atmosphere for the week. Progressing into Thursday there is decent WAA leading to the potential for some warmer than average temperatures (85°F). 

As the cold front moves through the area at 850 mb, like 700 mb, it pushes out nearly all humidity. Once again, warm air is shown advecting into Missouri bringing warmer temperatures for Thursday. Pushing down into the surface, there is a matching visual to the rest of the forecast with a weak cold front moving in early Tuesday and warm air pushing in on Thursday. However, on 12z Thursday a small amount of surface-based humidity starts to push into the viewing area. Future forecasters should watch to see if there is any interaction between the low-pressure system and the increasing humidity for Thursday night. 

-Beach, Chirpich