Monday, October 7th – Morning Forecast
Monday: Sunny. High: 71°F
Monday Night: Clear skies. Low: 46°F
Tuesday: Sunny. High: 73°F
Tuesday Night: Clear skies. Low: 48°F
Wednesday: Sunny. High: 79°F
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General Discussion:
Looking at a week full of sunshine with temperatures starting in the pleasant 70’s for the start of this week. With high pressure sticking around we do expect a slight increase in temperatures (80’s) as we move farther into the weekdays (view future forecasts).
– Blodgett, Nobles, Elston
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Forecasters: Blodgett, Nobles, Elston
Date Issued: 10/07/2024 9:00 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages
- A consistent upper level atmospheric pattern of high pressure will make way to a comfortable start to the workweek.
- Lots of sunshine expected due to the high pressure system, expect temperatures to increase later in the week.
- No excessive cloud coverage, will prove to no precipitation this week.
At 250 and 500 mb, As of now we are in a meridional flow pattern combined with a ridge both of those things are telling signs of calmer more passive weather. The peak of this ridge builds in to Wednesday providing pleasant weather throughout our forecast period. As we mentioned this sinking air over Missouri shows no precipitation expected in the area. Northerly and Westerly winds help provide us with the drier and cooler air. We can observe that any moisture present in the CONUS is being pulled into the hurricane strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure system is viewed with the GFS model forming from South Dakota moving south and breaking in Kansas territory, not making it far enough to disturb our viewing area.
Looking at 700 and 850 mb, if any moisture was to reach our area it would be in the form of very brief and thin cloud cover. There is some moisture west of Missouri that breaks before it can reach us that moisture builds for a few hours in Kansas and dissipates when hitting the Missouri border. As stated before most of this moisture viewed from the GFS and NAM models is being pulled into the hurricane system in the Southern CONUS. As we move towards the surface we observe no strong winds that could cause any issues.
With this continual high pressure over Missouri, no clouds and lots of sunshine will lead to a warming trend into the work week. Looking at our forecasted highs and lows we move into the upper 70’s by the end of our forecast shift due to lack in cloud cover meaning plentiful sunshine heating the surface. Since we will have clear night skies overnight lows will drop significantly, this is due to no cloud coverage creating a blanket and trapping in that warmer air. Daytime heating due to no cloud cover creates a subtle warming trend but is limited due to northerly winds.
-Blodgett, Nobles, Elston