Tuesday, October 8th – Afternoon Forecast

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 48°F

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 79°F

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 52°F

Thursday: Sunny. High: 82°F

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 55°F

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General Discussion:

The Weather is expected to warm up as we get closer to the weekend, with above average temperatures keeping us high and dry. Though this may be the case, morning temperatures will still dip to the low to mid fifties, so be sure to bring a Mizzou hoodie along with you for the morning commute. 

– Hayes

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Forecasters: Hayes, Jackson

Date Issued: 10/08/2024 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages:

1. A high pressure system presides over the Midwest, preventing potential cloud coverage or rainfall from forming.
2. Above average temperatures, (Low to mid 80s),  are expected to continue throughout the rest of the week.

The GFS and NAM models were used to create this forecast, taking into account potential temperature and moisture biases they tended to agree on the general theme of dry and warm weather. An upper level jet stream travels North of Missouri, arching over a mid-level high pressure system that encompasses a majority of the Midwest. This ridge will block any substantial wind divergence from occurring for the rest of the week.

 A weak upper-level trough forms around 21:00 Z Tuesday to 00:00 Z Wednesday, building to the Northwest of Missouri. It dips off of the jet stream and crests over the mid levels of the atmosphere, substantiated by pockets of vorticity. But, because of the strong high pressure system residing in the mid to lower levels of the atmosphere, this low causes no notable impact and falls apart by Thursday between 12:00Z- 15:00 Z. 

In the lower levels of the atmosphere, due to this southwestern ridge, no substantial moisture is noted until Thursday night between 15:00 Z-18:00 Z, when the NAM predicts a small bubble of moisture moving our way from southern Kansas. 

Future forecasters should note that this moisture may be a bias given by the NAM forecasting model, and due to the lack of Omega, wind shear, or lift present, this moisture will most likely dissipate without any notable impact.

Temperatures are expected to gradually increase throughout the forecast period, with the Highest temperature predicted to occur Thursday, with 82°F, (12°F above average for this time.) This is due to both a southerly wind shift happening on Wednesday around 12:00Z-15:00 Z, and daytime radiative heating. The absence of cloud coverage or moisture above the entirety of Missouri allows the surface to heat rapidly; this same process causes our nighttime lows for the forecasting period to dip around thirty degrees below the predicted high. Due to the fact that moisture supports the retention of heat in the atmosphere, with the lack of cloud coverage or humidity the warm air rises and contracts at a faster rate. 

• Hayes, Jackson